Tuesday November 29, 2011
12:00
DaveO: so now the paracite is tapping S.America
12:08
DaveO: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8921720/Europes-shrinking-money-supply-flashes-slump-warning.html
4:14
Comment From mustangrocky
maybe asia will be interesting

4:14
Comment From MikeHiggs
Evening, back from the German Language school. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-27/bond-dealers-see-fed-buying-545-billion-of-home-loan-debt-in-third-easing.html
4:18
C3X: welcome back

4:18
Willba: hi there

4:19
C3X: eurusd still fighting

4:19
C3X: there is a gap that is pulling it down while it waits to see yields open

4:20
C3X: how is ur algo coming allong

4:23
C3X: yes @axe we are differing with other analysts on eur prospects.

4:23
Willba: very slow

4:23
C3X: we believe it will fall like a rock and then rise like rocket

4:24
C3X: we believe there is zero chance of disintegration of *euro*

4:24
C3X: the coming run on muni will dwarf all that you have seen till date

4:26
C3X: we are fairly sure that SP is headed 1230 atleast in dec

4:29
C3X: and do remember we said this far before others gave that call…we were trying to pick es multiple times at 1165,75 which all got stopped but finaally one hit targets yesterday

4:30
C3X: now there is an italian auction today

4:30
C3X: that fed sapping liquidity was brilliantly executed

4:30
C3X: 4:30 GMT

4:30
C3X: and see what markets did before that

4:30
C3X: eurusd crashed from 1.34 to 1.3315 as dollar bonds were in great demand

4:31
C3X: 100 pips fall on risky ON day is not easy to trade

4:31
C3X: but we got our entry as close to 1.332 as possible

4:38
Willba: i have been on the phone all day with BB to work out more about excel

5:40
C3X: audusd hits all targets second time

5:40
Comment From Lee
AUD target hit

5:40
C3X: yes …now waiting for cad to do the same

5:40
C3X: the whole thing can be upset by italy auction

5:41
C3X: so a short aud at .9980 is very very wise

5:47
mustangrocky: usdchf still open?

5:51
Willba: are you going to short AUD anyone

5:55
mustangrocky: dont think so. it’s breaking down trend line on 4H chart.

5:55
mustangrocky: but as c3x said, italy auction caan change that

5:55
Willba: yeah and 1hourly doesnt support hypothesis

5:56
Willba: @mustangrocky – your right with that…

6:05
C3X: trade status are put up

6:05
C3X: usdchf and usdcad and eurusd all open

6:05
C3X: target update on usdchf

6:06
mustangrocky: what time is italy auction?

6:13
Willba: 4:30GMT

6:14
Michael: GM everyone. I woke up early to try and enjoy iwth everyone. I am going to short AUD with tight stop above parity.

6:15
Willba: what is your reasoning behind that?

6:15
C3X: scheduole of auctions put on trade sheet

6:15
Michael: Just that it is big barrier and will not make it the first time. Might become just a scalp

6:15
C3X: @Michael suggest u wait till see what eurusd is doing

6:16
C3X: yes scalp u may

6:16
C3X: cause if eurusd is doing 1.344 then aud is doing 1.02

6:16
C3X: u never know…right after italian auction ecbmay just disclose they are buying it

6:16
C3X: and thats enough for a eurusd rally

6:17
Willba: thanks for that insight Maestros

6:17
C3X: I think these schedules should come with ur brokers

6:17
C3X: auction scehdule etc

6:17
C3X: and economic indicators are anyway all over the place so not putting it

6:18
C3X: sorry aud is doing 1.002 and not 1.02

6:19
C3X: also u shld realsie aud has had one attempt at .9980 yesterday when it came to .9975

6:20
Michael: I have .999 as resistance so I am going to try it with stop at 1.0025. Might only be worth a few pips but I didn’t take the trade up

6:20
C3X: yes scalping level .9980 is good

6:20
Michael: I just sold it at .9987

6:21
C3X: u can go for it

6:21
C3X: lesser mortals like us will wait for italian auction etc

6:22
Michael: Thanks. My issue is I can’t sleep with the longer turning trades. It screws up my head (even more than it is) so I am trying a new system to go to sleep earlier in US Eastern and wake up for European markets to trade with everyone

6:23
C3X: I think 60% here trade EU and NY markets

6:23
C3X: today for a change we saw some action in asia

6:52
mustangrocky: good call on the scalp michael

6:54
Michael: Thanks but got out too early. Oh well.

6:58
Alby: gm

7:00
sgbdis: gm to all

7:01
sgbdis: found this which might be useful to you http://www.zerohedge.com/news/complete-list-european-sovereign-events-through-end-2012

7:11
Comment From stun
Any news of italian auctions?

7:11
Comment From stun
I am starting to think you may be right on eur but I have a feeling that you are similar in your views to ileap newsletter which you had linked here. Do you have anything to do with them?

7:12
C3X: No we do not have anything to do with them they are good arent they?

7:13
Comment From stun
By the way during which year were you at PIMCO?

7:13
C3X: not important

7:13
Comment From stun
ok thanks

7:13
Michael: Mystery is sexy

7:14
Comment From stun
the reason I ask is cause a good friend of mine seems to know you and had good things to say of you. No offense meant.

7:14
C3X: ok fine. focus on trading.

7:15
C3X: no offense taken

7:16
Comment From stun
AUDUSD does not look likely to take the barrier at .9990. No strength right now. May be it needs to go back to .9900?

7:17
Comment From stun
and ECB will not buy italian bonds as yet for the simple reason that once you buy, you are giving a message that you are ready to bail out Italy.

7:18
Comment From stun
that will send german yields soaring, and eurusd may also go higher in the immediated future but long term it is doomed

7:18
C3X: plausible

7:25
C3X: strength is gained when a pair is in tight range as well

7:26
C3X: audusd is in a tight range right now…so those who missed earlier longs can lose patience and come and bid it

7:26
C3X: yes

7:27
Michael: Euro wasn’t wanting any of that.

7:29
Michael: Almost back to entry point

7:29
C3X: just be cognizant of the gaps….either gaps can get filled now or it will get filled when eurusd is trashed from 1.35 levels on its way down

7:30
Michael: No I realize. I expected that after it hit 1.34

7:30
Willba: yeilds jumping @ Italian

7:31
C3X: yes

7:36
Willba: italian yeild @ 4.942

7:36
Michael: 2yr?

7:36
Willba: 10

7:37
Willba: *10yr

7:37
Alby: spread

7:37
Alby: is4.95

7:37
mustangrocky: yield is 7.28

7:38
Willba: sorry your right… typo

7:39
Michael: Can Euro really hit targets if this auction comes off with greater than 7% yields? I would think we might see big sell off

7:39
Mark H: Gday C3X and room…

7:39
Alby: http://www.calibratedconfidence.com/2011/11/italian-bond-calendar.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

7:45
Willba: the last 24 hours has seen green across the board for all major indexs

7:48
C3X: there is tremendous anticaption of summit and that ECB will come in

7:49
C3X: german CDS has eased

7:49
C3X: but curve inversion across the world is incredible to watch

7:49
Michael: Aussie coming up to .999. No I am not shorting this time. I think it will break thru.

7:49
C3X: when was the last time in your life did you see curve inversion across markets?

7:50
C3X: curve inversion is a deadly omen for contraction and world wide law and oder problem

7:50
C3X: welcome 2012

7:50
C3X: there was some movie made on this lines I think

7:51
mustangrocky: yay contraction was going to be my new years resolution

7:51
C3X:
7:51
Michael: Why are you pregnant?

7:52
mustangrocky: ha

7:52
Michael: STupid humour.

7:55
Willba: what curve inversion?

7:59
Willba: italian over 500

8:23
mustangrocky: where’s the trade sheet?

8:23
mustangrocky: nevermind

8:23
Alby: http://capital3x.com/trades/29-nov-2011-premium-trades-update-1-trade-status/

8:42
Michael: Did yields just spike?

8:43
mustangrocky: not that i can see but i dont have real time

8:43
Willba: not really a spike… but at the days high

8:46
Michael: I am out till the after the auction. Seems like this is going to be range bound for awhile

9:01
C3X: curver inversion is when 2 y starts pushing up while long term styarts falling
9:01
C3X: draw yield curve for germany and see how 2 y is pushing out wards while long term is compressing

9:02
C3X: but ever so small shift but it has begun…for italy this is far more vident

9:02
Alby: when BCE is buying italian bond, is it mostly buying 10 yrs?

9:02
C3X: and for US too

9:03
C3X: not necessary but 10 y tends to be liquid

9:03
Alby: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/germany/

9:04
C3X: seeing the long end falling
9:04
C3X: ?

9:04
C3X: while 2y to 10y moves up

9:05
Alby: ok

9:05
C3X: do a google search for inversion curves and what it means for economy

9:05
C3X: these shapes can take various forms

9:05
C3X: but germany is still ok…the process has just begun

9:06
C3X: look at italy and hten look at aus

9:06
C3X: cuves

9:06
C3X: these curves tell you a lot about the economy

9:07
C3X: once again italian auctions lead eurusd down

9:07
C3X: never fails that signal

9:07
C3X: from 1.337 to 1.3315

9:07
C3X: @Willba u may want to include bond schedules in ur algo

9:07
C3X: and start working with 12 hours before auction
9:08
Alby: do you have bloomberg symbol for itlaian yield curve? i cannot find it?

9:08
C3X: maybe shld write some book on non convetional methods of trading

9:08
C3X: I have reuters…

9:08
Alby: ok

9:08
Alby: Willba???

9:08
Willba: ok…. how would you recommend…

9:09

9:09
C3X: there is the italian blue curve

9:09
Alby: thanks

9:09
C3X: europe is inverting slowly with long end dipping

9:10
C3X: @Willba its tough. we could not do it

9:10
Willba: yeah ok… noted…

9:10
Willba: im sitting down with my stats professor later this week

9:10
C3X: but we have the calendar in front of us…and we look at the calendar and know there will a few pips moves

9:12

9:12
C3X: aussie curve added

9:12
Alby: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/australia/

9:12
C3X: u see a chance to make money? borrow short term in US at 0% and in vest in aud 20Y

9:12
C3X: 10 y

9:12
C3X: risk free money

9:13
C3X: thats what bond funds were doing all through QE1

9:13
C3X: thats why no money ever reached economy

9:13
C3X: speculation

9:14
C3X: fun is ending with short end curve in US starting to strengthen

9:18
Alby: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.html

9:22
C3X: not showing what we need to know

9:22
Alby: i know

9:22
Alby: ok at the curve in 2006

9:22
Alby: look at the

9:22
C3X: there was a curve inversion in 1960

9:23
C3X: when the last tiem a twist operation was done

9:23
C3X: there was curve inversion in eu in 1890s

9:23
C3X: which finally led to ww1

9:23
C3X: and gave rise hitler in 1920s

9:23
C3X: befoew ww2

9:23
Michael: Why is the S& P report of cutting France debt rating having a big negative reaction on euro? Was it already expected by market?

9:24
C3X: thats how these talking forex kind of places reports

9:24
C3X: there is nothing that the markets dont already know

9:24
C3X: eurusd cld be reacting to italy yield or something else..

9:25
C3X: if frence yields sprung then its a diff story

9:25
C3X: the given risk appetite right now, even a mere mention that some how italy raised money will be enough for risk to come back

9:25
C3X: forget the yield

9:25
Willba: headline based market

9:26
C3X: yea but thats what gives u the chance

9:26
Alby: so the cover to bid ratio is what we have to pay attention

9:26
C3X: let the headline traders move in first…and then we look at yields and go for ti

9:26
C3X: yea but that is masked by ecb

9:26
Alby: ok

9:27
C3X: am not looking at it at all today

9:27
C3X: unless there is a bond run..eurusd has baked in 7.3%

9:27
C3X: and also italy is nearing its target raise for 2011

9:27
C3X: will also help sentiment

9:28
C3X: eurusd 1.33….20 days back it was 1.39 italy yields were 6.5% today they 7.3

9:30
C3X: all symbolically spoken..without exact dates

9:30
C3X: all am saying eurusd has baked in a lot of bad news

9:30
C3X: unless incrementally we recieve bad news, eurusd only has a gap to fill

9:30
C3X: otherwise 1.345

9:38
Alby: this chart goes back to 1990

9:38
Alby: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspx

9:38
Alby: but you can see an inverted yield curve on 2000

9:39
Alby: and 2006

9:49
Willba: @C3X did you get my email

9:56
C3X: nopes we dont use skype

9:56
Willba: ok, email it shall

9:56
Willba: be

10:07
C3X: 7.38

10:10
Alby: no news from twitter

10:10
Alby: very strange

10:13
Michael: parity

10:14
Michael: Never realized so much action at 5am in the morning in the market. You people need to sleep

10:15
C3X: that isa good auction

10:15
C3X: insiders had already set the ball rolling exactly at 10

10:16
C3X: eurusd reached 1.336

10:16
C3X: and now 1.34

10:16
C3X: .1.33 bid cover

10:16
Michael: would you still get out of aussie at 1..004

10:16
C3X: only 14 ticks above market

10:17
C3X: Oh yes

10:17
C3X: twitter still was the first

10:17
Alby: was it?

10:17
C3X: hashtag was #btp

10:18
Alby: ok

10:18
C3X: so are we now set for 1.3835 in dec?

10:19
C3X: ok now reuters reports

10:19
C3X: after 80 pip

10:19
Willba: ?

10:19
C3X: u see why we never made money

10:19
C3X: cause we will wondering why markets moved all off a sudden like this if we did not know the schedule

10:20
C3X: eurusd hits tergets…and this was a counter

10:20
C3X: ravoring the moment

10:20
C3X: savoring

10:22
Willba: entry to aud?

10:22
C3X: yes

10:22
C3X: 1.0045

10:22
C3X: will short eurusd as well 1.343

10:22
Willba: tight stops

10:22
C3X: but not trading

10:23
Michael: You aren’t shorting Euro also?

10:24
Michael: or would you?

10:24
C3X: am done…cant just keep trading everything that we see

10:24
C3X: but 1.343 is a very good short

10:24
Michael: But you are doing the aussie

10:24
C3X: yes one is fine

10:24
C3X: cause it overextended

10:25
C3X: and it will test that broken trend again

10:25
C3X: and even that am not entirely sure

10:25
C3X: today auction was simple to guess ….markets wld have taken any result

10:26
C3X: as long as it was not a bond run

10:26
C3X: wrote about it many times which is why eurusd long was not taken out

10:29
Willba: still a bit of rise in the EUR and AUD

10:30
Michael: I raised stop to 1.0075 which I have as resistance.

10:31
Comment From MikeHiggs
Morning. so a few days ago I said I would be buying in to the SPX around 1160/70 for my anticpated relief rally. I know that there was question of my philosophy in the plan, but it worked, guess i got lucky

10:32
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/tkjtvwq

10:33
Michael: Aussie stop of 1.0065 gone

10:36
C3X: new short on aud at 1.0073

10:37
C3X: usdchf closed

10:37
C3X: usdcad has new targets

10:37
C3X: eurgbp is not rally

10:37
C3X: raise red signals

10:37
Comment From Sponn
Does eur/usd hit a tp ?

10:37
C3X: yes it has

10:38
Comment From MikeHiggs
Last week’s low has formed a nice support, maybe a bit of short covering. Mac Osc chart still o/sold but has turned up,. Post Turkey fest & Positive retail sales was the lead news story, but deeply oversold short-term internals and short-cove

10:38
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/tjkurwx

10:40
C3X: that auction is not as good as eurusd is making it out to be

10:40
C3X: tmrw is spain

10:40
C3X: italy gives 1.344 will spain give us 1.323

10:41
C3X: and close out the gaps

10:42
C3X: counter accuracy shld have improved now with 9/10 counter trades hitting targets

10:42
C3X: one got nulled

10:43
C3X: and per trade winner at 80-100 pips

10:43
Michael: Aussie is still shortable if you got stopped out. High was 1.0076. I had 1.008

10:43
C3X: refer latest trade sheet

10:44
C3X: 750 pips after accounting for losses

10:44
Michael: never saw that one. bummer. should have waited on short

10:44
C3X: first was stopped

10:45
C3X: second was executed …wrote it here that we arenow short a.10073

10:45
Michael: ok. i faded some more at the same entry and might do it again if it hits back to 1.0075

10:47
C3X: I think we are headed 1.323

10:47
C3X: on eurusd

10:47
C3X: before 1.352

10:48
C3X: ok will be away…

10:52
Comment From MikeHiggs
More reason for my SPX comments were thatSPX looked ripe for a rise in relation to the TVIX, the SPX had dropped but the TVIX failed to get trhough 65.so though we have a rally now, I do wonder what will happen if/when we break above 65 in TVIX???

10:54
MikeHiggs: So for now TVIX to below 50, SPX to around 1240.

11:05
C3X: if that auction was good, eur shld have rallied…but look at eurgbp

11:06
C3X: and yet FT tmrw will be writing about the how an auction it was

11:09
DaveO: I think gbpusd and eurusd are both basically risk on/off pairs so eurgbp pretty static when both pairs are correlated to risk plays

11:10
C3X: that logic derives from the premise that the whole world is dollar party

11:10
C3X: there are many takers for that theory

11:10
C3X: in such case eurgbp is an inconsequential pair

11:10
DaveO: just my observations over the months

11:10
C3X: yes

11:13
C3X: am expecting a down day on sp

11:13
DaveO: Osborne could change that today, if only temporarily

11:13
C3X: I mean close down by 0.5%

11:13
C3X: 1185

11:14
mustangrocky: a little early to play call the close. Higgs and I usually start around 1-3pm est

11:14
C3X: more evidence that eurusd is headed 1.323

11:14
C3X: eurgbp takes out .856

11:14
C3X: or rather waits there

11:15
C3X: eurgbp importance lies in the fact it is imp for EUR index just like dollar index

11:16
C3X: if eur cannot even rally against a fundamentally weak currency like the cable, then eur index is weak

11:16
C3X: and hence all rallies can be sold

11:16
Comment From MikeHiggs
Also SPX logic ties in with my feelings about a bond breakdown, August breakout in TLT began as parabolic then IMHO rise was too sharp, as was the rise over the last 2 weeks. 123/5 alao seems to be a ceiling in TLT for now. And once again, chart targe

11:17
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/5pfw8ub

11:20
DaveO: I know Arthur Hill likes to plot the TLT

11:24
Comment From MikeHiggs
More TLT vicar! My Technical expectation of a breakdown from the 3 week bearish ascending wedge is confirmed, possibility of more downside likely, trend line comes in around 115.

11:25
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/mdqqgf8

11:28
Alby: this is a 30 min chart of euro index. you can see what C3X said about EURGBP

11:28
Alby: http://chart.ly/45uypsy

11:32
Alby: after initial spike euro index retraced

11:32
DaveO: have you done a daily and weekly weekly count E #F

11:33
Alby: no. pattern not very clear

11:34
DaveO: how far back you gone

11:35
Alby: not too much data on this broker

11:35
Alby: back to 2005

11:36
Alby: sorry 2007

11:36
Alby: i have to go out

11:37
Alby: back later

11:42
Willba: aud 1 hr looks no good

11:42
DaveO: June 2010 low 3 or C. Then ABCDE up to May 11 high I reckon

11:46
Comment From MikeHiggs
TNX chart yet another reason why we could predict the SPX rally. TNX may climb to 24 & higher. Bonds are toast! (Short term)

11:46
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/pybs742

11:50
Comment From MikeHiggs
And have we formed a nice ABC pattern in the TNX? Looks likely with yesterdays moves.

11:50
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/ofwwty9

11:51
DaveO: fact is, where will the money come from to pay all the debt surplus. Answer its impossible so won’t happen. Bond mkts will be stressed out for yrs to come

11:54
MikeHiggs: For sure longer term DvO I agree. My chart and comments only relate to 3/14 days outlook, a tradeable pattern and how all of the above relate to why I discussed buying and an expected rise in Equites short term. Some asked why I felt that why, I am just trying to explain my reasoning and what i saw.

11:55
MikeHiggs: felt that way

12:00
DaveO: Yep sure MH. MY comment was unrelated !

12:01
Willba: Do bonds come in to play with SPX?

12:01
MikeHiggs: Well maybe unrelated, but as it happens, totally correct and within my strategy

12:02
MikeHiggs: Do Bunds come into play with EUR/USD?

12:02
DaveO: If your ABC proves valid the C would take out the A high ++

12:03
Willba:

12:03
MikeHiggs: Willba, check the charts, they all have SPX plotted, draw your own conclusions

12:04
Willba: im just curious as to your thoughts on eur bond yeild and spread being represented in the your analysis on SPX (i must say SPX, is not on my radar of learn yet ) :_)

12:05
MikeHiggs: Yes DvO, it would. and that really would be an xmas rally hence SPX 1240, hell its xmas, why not 1260/80 IF TNX busts A and other assets confirm.

12:05
DaveO: You need to gen up on SPX Willba at some point soon

12:06
Willba: ?gen?

12:06
DaveO: study

12:06
Willba: oh i shall – but small steps… thanks tho

12:07
DaveO: Its the main barometer for risk on/off

12:07
Willba: ok interesting thank you both

12:07
MikeHiggs: Do u only trade FX Willba?

12:08
Willba: yeah FX at this point, however learning about it all…

12:08
DaveO: broad indices of blues whereas the Dow is top 30 industrial stocks

12:10
MikeHiggs: OK. W, You will need to “Gen up” one day in the future about the SPY, SPX and of course, the real tradable one, the ESmini which is what we mean when we discuss ES. I believe DvO trades it too.

12:11
MikeHiggs: ESmini is the SP500 futures price to explain.

12:12
Willba: Yeah i intend to post christmas now im all done with uni. not to mention will need to move to a new broker that offeres it. I do watch it and am learning. But currently my focus has been bonds, and FX only

12:14
DaveO: If you are planning to run a service you will need to know something about all mkts and many things about some.

12:14
MikeHiggs: ES traded on the CME, wpedia explains it in simple terms. Its the instrument of choice for hedge funds and traders in relation to US indexes. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-mini_S%26P

12:15
Willba: thanks both guys…lots to do

12:15
DaveO: 4 main US stock indices, The ES has by far the largest volume for stock index futures

12:16
MikeHiggs: Y

12:16
Willba: i have a dedicated screen to futures and indexs on BB

12:16
DaveO: And in the main is used for teaching services but the Russel is also very popular

12:17
DaveO: And the YM is the dow futures

12:18
DaveO: Russell futures is TF and Naz 100 futures is NQ

12:19
MikeHiggs: Yep DvO, spot on, YM & Russell. I cut my teeth on all the mentioned but mainly the SPX/Dow then onto ES, before moving on to study FX, then Comms.

12:22
Willba: 4 hours till Italian bond auction?

12:39
DaveO: Listening to Osborne getting barracked

12:43
DaveO: growth forecasts are presented with an element of optimism but even so are truly dismal

12:59
DaveO: gbpusd slightly exceeded potential ABC sym at 1.5340 and reacted back down

1:18
Alby: back

1:29
Willba: any thought on the direction for US opening?

1:30
Willba: http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2011/11/sp-500-working-on-a-potential-inverse-head-and-shoulders-formation/

1:40
Comment From Willba
Greece is “off the chart” (in the “toast” zone) Portugal will not make it as debt and interest is not sustainable and the EFSF struggles to raise bailout funds. The “soft Euro-zone” could survive by aggressive monetarization of debt by the

1:40
Willba: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-euro-answer-my-friend-showing-bond-market

1:52
Willba: AUD – TP

1:56
DaveO: I’ve seen some pretty bad analysis for the SPX in my time bit that inverted H&S takes the biscuit. Far too early to call that pattern and very unlikely anyway. H&S pattern is often abused and only of potential value with near perfect form. Those guys must be complete amateurs.

2:00
DaveO: furking idiots, it really annoys me

2:01
DaveO: can’t they pick up a book on it before spouting their mouth off. No, too much trouble.

2:02
DaveO: still, I guess we need the dossers at the other end of our trades

2:05
Willba: agreed

2:08
mustangrocky: who are you speaking of daveo?

2:09
DaveO: Willba chart link 9 posts up

2:11
DaveO: came back after UK treasury report feeling like Mr Grumpy and see that chart OMG has the world gone crazy

2:12
DaveO: so much incompetance everywhere u look

2:13
Willba: …… im sorry ?

2:13
DaveO: not your fault

2:22
DaveO: usdcad today tested the lower trend support line drawn from 9891 through the 14th Nov pivot low. Bounced off for now.

2:23
Willba: usdcad? or aud

2:23
Alby: usdcad

2:24
Willba: bounce off 9891?

2:24
Alby: USDCAD

2:24
C3X: sorry missed the action…usdcadhas closed

2:25
Willba: nice trade for the AUD

2:26
C3X: looks like my earlier call for negative close is possible…by the way markets were wild on risk at that point on italian acution

2:26
C3X: yeap aud too

2:26
C3X: I also called eursd to go for gap closure when it tested 1.344

2:26
C3X: dont know if anyone went for short then

2:27
C3X: I had replied to Michael saying we are done ….aud is the only one we are going for

2:27
C3X: aud is now headed .988

2:27
DaveO: gbpusd from the 1.5422 low made nice 5 waves up on H.1 chart to form a wave 1 or A and then a move down to form Wave 2 or B at 5468, then an impulsive move up to form Wave 3 or C topping at almost exacat symmetry and reacting down.

2:27
C3X: nice

2:27
DaveO: sorry to interrupt C3X

2:28
C3X: no plesae go ahead

2:28
C3X: we have nothing much to say given we are done …only eurgbp and gold stands

2:28
C3X: lovely opportunity setting up to make the same trades again later this week

2:29
Michael: I went short on Euro and the Aussie. Fun ride since I missed most of the up while sleeping

2:30
DaveO: so question now is if the high was C then we shall see prices drop to new lows below 5422 but if the high was a 3 then this move down is a 4 with wave 5 up to follow to new highs.

2:30
Michael: I actually had Aussie going to .997 but oh well

2:30
DaveO: so therein lies the subjectivity of EWA

2:31
DaveO: BUT, normally a 3 would make more than 100% symmetry like 161.8% ext typical target for a 3

2:32
DaveO: so I am favouring new lows after a completed ABC simple 3 step corrective

2:34
DaveO: if I am wrong the this potential wave 4 down should not go much deeper before potential wave 5 back up kicks in

2:34
Comment From sgbdis
i went short EU again

2:36
Willba: @DaveO – do you think a short is looking placeable on GBP

2:38
DaveO: Willba the 2 alternate counts could mean either long soon or short to new lows

2:40
mustangrocky: DaveO – u doing anything with audusd now that it has broken down trend on 4H?

2:40
Willba: Do you see the 1.556 (50% FIB) breakdown?

2:43
DaveO: try to understand what I posted. If this is going back up the current dip down should not penetrate much below the Wave 1 or A high at 5593 pivot high

2:43
Alby: i would expect more retracement on AUDUSD

2:43
Alby: notice 5 waves move on H1 chart from Nov 23rd low

2:44
Alby: also W.3 as gap inside

2:44
Alby: so very impulsive

2:44
Willba: @DaveO – Thanks mate

2:44
Alby: you can put fib frm Nov. 23rd low

2:45
Alby: 0.919 = 38.2% ret+

2:45
Willba: Alby would you care to share your chart validating your thoughts (great food for thought)

2:46
Willba: Note – Today AUDUSD high touched 50DMA

2:47
Willba: Also AUD has bullish signals on Daily (RSI, MACD, Stoch)

2:47
DaveO: yes and yes

2:49
Willba:

2:49
DaveO: @Alby, on the aus the 5 might not be finished, similar pattern to gbpusd except the aus was leader.

2:50
Willba: Can the CAD validate under these situations?

2:51
Alby: i know . not clear 5 waves inside wave 5

2:52
DaveO: mkts are always so cunning they give us 2 alternate counts, never a certainty

2:53
Alby: better to don’t show any chart that can be misleading

2:53
DaveO: and EWA not really suited to paired assets

2:54
DaveO: but the symmetry and fibs work time and again for reactions, as do trend lines etc

2:56
sgbdis: hedged my EU short with a long in AUDUSD. AUD trend is still intact.

2:56
Willba: thanks guys!

2:59
Michael: Is anyone still shorting gold? Right now it is close to stop and was thinking about it but you guys know alot more than I do about it

3:00
DaveO: I favour more upside in gold to next beer stop or reversal at 1229/31

3:01
DaveO: It made 100% symmetry yesterday but pattern looks like more upside ahead

3:01
Michael: Anyone else? I never take these trades from C3X but it looks so appeal with risk being 3 pips or less versus gain of 40

3:02
Michael: However, if gold is going up than most likely Euro is heading up versus dollar which negates C3X theory of Euro at 1.32 before 1.35. Just to give the other side

3:03
DaveO: gold not always correlated

3:03
Michael: I know but “usually”. Although that might be dangerous to say in this market place

3:04
Michael: American Airlines stock is selling for .23cents. anyone want some?

3:04
DaveO: I think the current sideways action is 4 of C so need 5 of C up to complete the corrective. Might be wrong

3:04
Michael: Wonder if I buy 100 shares I could get a free flight?

3:04
Alby: American Airlines is the best starting hand in poker

3:05
Michael: Hey if we pool our money for a $100 each maybe we can buy a plane?

3:07
DaveO: I remeber when Rolls Royce in the 1976 I think it was got down to 3 pence. I phoned my accountant and said, hey what about a buy here. He replied no risky.

3:07
DaveO: I had no experience with stocks in those days

3:08
DaveO: could have made a fortune

3:09
Alby: no fortune with stocks????

3:09
Alby: i still remeber the nice trade you made 2 years ago

3:09
DaveO: oh yes west china cement

3:10
Alby: and guys it was more than an home run

3:10
DaveO: after their earthquake

3:10
Alby: yes

3:10
DaveO: I had a tip off the government grants for WCC

3:11
DaveO: registered in Channel Isles at the time

3:13
Michael: Anyone doing anything or just watching? I am flat. Thought we might see a down in morning and now I think we need to wait till the afternoon for “turnaround tuesday”

3:13
DaveO: I sent the report to Alby and one ot two other mentorees and none of them took the trade. Then they watched me play the stock to untold dizzy heights:-)

3:14
DaveO: And C3X had some real clever plays at start of the service I believe

3:14
Michael: Did you cause the earthquake?

3:14
DaveO: it was cruel, should never have mentioned it

3:18
mustangrocky: michael – im short usdchf right now. in at .9230

3:18
Michael: Nice entry point. Scalping?

3:19
mustangrocky: yeah so an opportunity looking at 15 minute chart

3:19
mustangrocky: saw an opportunity

3:19
Michael: Nice catch

3:23
Willba: AUD possibly going to retest 1.0080 (Confluence 50MA + 38.2% Fib), note confluence also at 1.0345/25 (100DMA + 50WMA + 61.8% Fib)

3:24
sgbdis: risk appetite surely coming back to the markets

3:24
Willba: till the next major (stupid) headline

3:26
Michael: Eur really hasn’t bounced yet

3:27
Willba: GBPUSD – Confluence @1.5754/44 (50DMA + 100WMA) (note 4hr 100MA is heading to point aswell)

3:28
Michael: Thanks Willba. I had an alert set at 1.5648 for it on a scalp

3:29
Michael: Gold is at 1720 I am real tempted to short it

3:29
DaveO: I think it will make 5684 next if can take the high out

3:38
DaveO: very good hit rate on yesterday C3X trades

3:39
mustangrocky: eurusd not in step with bunds. bunds are down 1%. normally that would mean euro up.

3:39
DaveO: eurgbp likely to come a cropper

3:40
Willba: @DaveO do you know game theory at all?

3:42
DaveO: in economics ?

3:42
sgbdis: german bond yield up 3% today at 2.37. not a good sign for euro

3:42
Willba: in general

3:42
DaveO: not really

3:51
DaveO: is that appropriate to your algo Willba ?

3:52
Willba: not to sure just yet

3:52
DaveO: are you mathematician

3:53
Willba: to some degree yeah

3:53
DaveO: quantum ?

3:54
Willba: im hoping to do a phd in it over the coming 5 years

3:54
DaveO: ah, glutton for punishment

3:54
Willba: did you study

3:55
DaveO: no only what I needed for engineering

3:55
DaveO: and much long forgotten

3:56
Alby: off topic: do you have a maximum amount you can pay in cash in your country?

3:56
DaveO: who ?

3:57
Alby: i mean above you have to use credit cards

3:57
Alby: you and the others from others country

3:57
Alby: just a curiosity

3:57
DaveO: not in uk I think but money laundering rules would apply

3:58
Alby: monti wants the set a max amount payble in cash at € 300

3:58
DaveO: thats incredible

3:58
Alby: he wants to help his friend banker

3:59
DaveO: next thing will be limit of cash you can take on holiday out of the country

3:59
Alby: yes

3:59
DaveO: like UK in the early 60′s

3:59
Alby: what do we do with 500 euros bill

4:00
Alby: lol

4:01
Alby: willba, michael, mustang???

4:02
Willba: im not following, what do you want to know about credit cards in AUS?

4:02
Alby: the max amount you can pay cash

4:02
Michael: The US only has limit of $10000 cash for payments where you need to fill out a discolsure form to prove it isn’t drug money

4:04
Alby: thanks

4:04
mustangrocky: im not aware of any such disclosure

4:04
Alby: ok

4:04
MikeHiggs: In UK, €15,000 (Euro) cash or cash equivalent if depositing into an institution, bank, Estate Agent, dealer etc. Higher limit for goods purchased & Casinos.

4:05
Willba: not to my knowledge in AUS, i sold my apartment a few years ago and i withdrew 58k in cash and walked it over the road to another bank with no probs

4:05
Alby: talking when you buy goods or go to a resturants

4:05
MikeHiggs: Willba, if you every plan to do that again, let me know…… I fancy a holiday

4:06
Alby: lol

4:06
Willba: lol

4:06
MikeHiggs: There are over the counter limits in the UK, not sure how much, but its higher than €15000

4:07
DaveO: cash is certainly becoming more unwelcome since about 2001

4:08
Alby: i do agree, but not € 300

4:08
DaveO: when money laundering legislation was introduced

4:08
DaveO: no thats ludicrous

4:08
Alby: he is doing this to help banks with more comminssion

4:08
DaveO: is he mafia

4:09
Alby: people think that Super Mario Monti is a saint

4:09
DaveO: lol

4:09
C3X: @Willba what are you doing in game theory

4:10
DaveO: the pope canonised him ?

4:10
Alby: people were blind when berlusconi was prime minister and keep being blind

4:12
Alby: vatican not paying anything to help italy

4:12
C3X: pope is german and the treasurer is italian

4:12
Alby: i know the joke

4:12
C3X: how much more wrong could the EU get

4:12
C3X: yes

4:12
C3X: I love it

4:13
C3X: so what are biases here…am not trading

4:13
DaveO: I hate it

4:13
C3X: my bias you already know it

4:13
Willba: @C3X – understanding the masses thought processes

4:13
C3X: yes in some ways…

4:13
Alby: Bund can bounce at this level

4:14
C3X: yes it can

4:14
C3X: which is why I believe ES will test 1180s

4:14
Alby: 3rd time tasting this level

4:14
C3X: hey DaveO any religious senstivity around that joke?

4:15
C3X: I read that you hate it

4:15
MikeHiggs: Religion or sensetivity?

4:15
DaveO: Willba, we have a saying “Theres nought stranger than folk”

4:15
MikeHiggs: Or both

4:15
DaveO: @C3X I meant I hate the ezone mess

4:15
Comment From LondonFx
hi c3x: Do you think bunds will re-test the highs of Sept & Nov or is that it for this cycle?

4:15
C3X: Oh ok

4:16
C3X: retest yes but may not be before Jan

4:16
C3X: or dec last week

4:17
C3X: German CDS not yet taken off

4:17
DaveO: I am a humanist not a religious believer in spite of being educated for 5 yrs in Benedictin monastery

4:17
C3X: I mean german was asking for a yield of 2% while inflation of 3% existed in eu

4:17
C3X: why wld bond investors agree to that

4:18
C3X: which is why auction failed

4:18
C3X: fundamental flaw

4:18
C3X: in german thinking that as long as italy suffered they could have negative yields

4:18
Willba: @C3X – did you get my email earlier today

4:18
C3X: yes

4:18
LondonFx: good point….”…An ultimate euro break up will see a hawkish Germany hike rates to combat inflation, while any form of a solution will likely involve a large contribution from Germany. Both are bearish for Bunds…”?

4:18
C3X: will reply later

4:18
Willba: k – in your own time

4:18
C3X: eur is not going to break

4:19
C3X: u can do what you want

4:19
LondonFx: * Got that from a Total derivatives article

4:19
C3X: eur will not break

4:19
C3X: am happy that am in 1% who believe that eur will not break

4:19
DaveO:

4:19
C3X: even on this forum almost everyone on poll wil raise hands to break up of eur

4:19
Willba: im with you on that too

4:19
C3X: its just that we are not getting the point

4:20
C3X: currency transcend geography and politics

4:20
DaveO: open minded to both scenarios

4:20
LondonFx: If no Euro break, then large contribution from Germany therefore negative for bunds too?

4:20
C3X: no am generally reading so much about breakup of eur …the reasons are all wrong

4:20
C3X: a currency breaks up when its trade partners refuse to trade it

4:20
C3X: in eur case amazingly eur is rising in trade terms

4:20
C3X: simple economics

4:21
Alby: euro wil survive with some countries in slavery condition

4:21
C3X: all that may be possible

4:21
C3X: @alby I dont deny the political ramifications like germany leaving or greece gone etc

4:21
C3X: but eur will go on

4:21
C3X: yes @mary …germany leaving

4:21
C3X: not a mistake

4:22
C3X: 100s of scenarios and which is where game theory is brilliant

4:22
C3X: @Willba will tell you more of ti

4:22
C3X: yea was a geek once ..:)

4:23
Willba: @C3X – what do you mean

4:23
Willba: in regads to the email

4:23
C3X: I read that you were speaking about game theory

4:23
C3X: so I imagine you have worked on game theory

4:24
C3X: my assumption is right?

4:24
Willba: yeh very lightly will know more in the coming weeks

4:24
C3X: oh ok

4:24
Willba: but yes i understand it

4:25
C3X: not important anyways

4:25
Willba: still interesting

4:25
C3X: oh yes very interesting

4:25
Willba:

4:25
C3X: tmrw is spain auction

4:25
C3X: yields alrady compressed

4:26
C3X: did the schedule of events help..shld we be posting that ?

4:26
C3X: or u have access to it anwyays

4:26
Willba: yeah was great thank for that

4:26
Willba: Zero Hedge usually have me covered every month

4:26
C3X: all yields falling so eurusd fall cld be done here

4:26
C3X: for today

4:27
C3X: eurusd longs look better now

4:27
C3X: 1.338

4:27
C3X: but stops have to be where we had it earlier

4:27
C3X: 1.3280

4:27
C3X: or even lower to see how asia spans

4:27
C3X: italy 7.22 and spain under 6.4

4:27
C3X: that is very good

4:28
Willba: i hope you dont find my question to forward on my email

4:29
C3X: no thats fine

4:29
Willba:

4:29
C3X: we would love to enter a long eurusd….

4:29
C3X: but tmrw

4:30
Comment From Willba
Bonds 10yr vs Germany

4:31
C3X: nice

4:33
Willba: what is the Oil code for BB?

4:35
MikeHiggs: Euro will not break, some countries will leave IMO

4:35
DaveO: yes agree

4:36
DaveO: ideally a northern alliance retains the euro and let the rest leave until they can meet required criteria

4:37
DaveO: Prob best for france to leave also, overweight govnmt, reduce size and then return

4:39
DaveO: new 30 yr plan

4:40
DaveO: Italy should sell the vatican wealth and sack the pope

4:42
Comment From MikeHiggs
Bigger picture on EURUSD, one possible scenario is that we have HS pattern. If we repeat the measured move from here, target would be 1.20 by summer 2013. I need to do more work on the this scenario to be more confident. Pattern wise its compelling es

4:42
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/rkwjv3l

4:45
Willba: im off guys – All the best, cya tomorrow

4:45
MikeHiggs: Chow

4:46
DaveO: Bye Willba

4:46
Willba: cya

4:49
DaveO: MH bigger monthly pattern calls for 1.1488/1.0420, possibly lower

4:49
DaveO: and crsis to speed your time projection

4:51
MikeHiggs: I did have a target of exactly 1.14 DvO, but decided to round up to 1.2 as I thought everyone would think I was bonkers if I said 1.14. May take longer than summer, especially as there is no sign of any crisis that could occur.

4:51
DaveO: only a high above 1.5143 could change the count

4:52
DaveO: no sign of any crisis I agree

4:55
DaveO: Due respect to C3X intimate knowledge the move down should take all by surprise, well not quite all.

4:56
MikeHiggs: I thought C3x were bullish on EURUSD?

4:57
DaveO: calling parity to 0.800

4:58
DaveO: May to Sept 12 @ C3X

4:59
MikeHiggs: Best start saving for my overseas purchase.

4:59
DaveO: but uncle ben’s QE3 timing might have an input

4:59
DaveO: yes exactly

5:00
MikeHiggs: I posted this last night after my return from the German language school, but was not sure if it got on air. from yesterday http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-27/bond-dealers-see-fed-buying-545-billion-of-home-loan-debt-in-third-easing.html

5:01
DaveO: yep saw it thanks

5:02
DaveO: There is also some question as to whether next fed QE would not hurt the usd. Its beyond me understanding all the ifs and buts

5:04
DaveO: just a simple chartist

5:04
MikeHiggs: But its a question of what would hurt the least, more QE or a full blown rescession.

5:04
DaveO: we all get the full blown recessions, no brainer

5:05
MikeHiggs: A humble chartist at that.

5:05
C3X: we are hyper bearish in eurusd in 2012 H1

5:05
C3X: what you saw on germany was only a trailer

5:05
C3X: let dec go by and let the everyone return from vacation

5:05
DaveO: will also rub off on china and india et al

5:06
C3X: and then as auctions begin, we will see what is in store

5:06
C3X: germany has 300 bn to raise

5:06
C3X: italy and spain combined 700

5:06
C3X: and then US begins to muni rollover in oct

5:06
C3X: what a year 2012

5:06
DaveO: ladst time to get santa to deliver this chrisy so make the most of it

5:07
C3X: am just thinking if that hollywood movie becomes some kind of a self fullfilling prophecy

5:07
DaveO: havent seen it

5:08
C3X: there is some movie saying 2012 end of world …released in 2008 or so

5:08
C3X: wow eurusd

5:08
C3X: this can shorted at 1.339

5:08
DaveO: suspect Mr Prechter will at last get his reward

5:09
C3X: yea but its all about timing isnt it

5:09
Comment From MikeHiggs
Eyeing a trade on the EURCAD now that it has entered my “Zone of Entry”.Could be a nice 200 pip trade if it works out. Like to see it below 1.37 for an entry.

5:09
DaveO: yep and deleveraging big time

5:10
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/sbehspv

5:17
MikeHiggs: SPIEGEL Interview with Romano Prodi ‘Germany Must Make a Decision or the Game Is Over’ http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,800351,00.html DvO, more reading on on of your fave subjects.

5:18
DaveO: Take a look at your old channel resistance, now support on the eurjpy daily, talk about creeping death

5:18
MikeHiggs: He doesnt waste any time : SPIEGEL: Do you, like European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, support the introduction of euro bonds in order to steer Europe out of the crisis? Prodi: The European Central Bank needs to play a proper role in the crisis and euro bonds also need to be issued. Together with my colleague, I proposed bonds that are to be guaranteed by the state’s gold reserves and other funds.

5:21
DaveO: I dont know why they dont use their gold, its surely a luxury they cannot afford ?

5:23
MikeHiggs: I agree, italy & France have tons of it, get it out you tight f***rs. Still that war in europe mentality. Move on already

5:29
MikeHiggs: POS COUNTRY TONNES % OF GOLD AS FX RESERVES 1 United States USA 8,133.5 74.7% 2 Germany Germany 3,401.0 71.7% 3 Italy Italy 2,451.8 71.4% 4 France France 2,435.4 66.1% 5 China China 1,054.1 01.7% 6 Switzerland Switzerland 1,040.1 16.4%

5:34
Comment From MikeHiggs
Problem is though, they could sell it all and still be no better off. This graph shows the scale of the problem.

5:38
DaveO: Prodi interview very interesting but why is it that politicians never talk about reducing the burden of govnmt obesity.

5:39
DaveO: Its huge in germany for example and most other countries

5:39
MikeHiggs: France its obscene

5:39
DaveO: yes

5:39
MikeHiggs: Be like Turkeys voting for xmas

5:39
DaveO: irs a burden on the private sectors

5:40
DaveO: and Brussels takes the prize

5:40
DaveO: politicians simply get in the way

5:41
MikeHiggs: And none of them talk English and they smell funny.

5:41
MikeHiggs: Joke

5:42
DaveO:

5:42
MikeHiggs: A Fatc Cat is never going to announce its own crash diet, despite thats what is clearly needed.

5:42
DaveO: you must be referring to the French

5:42
MikeHiggs: Always founf Belgium to be a bit whiffy.

5:43
DaveO: France is a beautiful country, shame about the peoples

5:43
MikeHiggs: sounds like the US

5:44
DaveO: USD govnmt another classic example of obese

5:44
MikeHiggs: beautiful country, shame about the peoples

5:45
DaveO: Nah, I can relate to americans but not to french

5:45
MikeHiggs: I know one French person who is quite cool, he doesnt like French people either.

5:46
DaveO: there are always exceptions of course

5:47
DaveO: and brits in france are stupid to colonise so not surprising that causes some probs,l cant be bothered to learn the language etc

5:47
DaveO: they cant be bothered to learn the language

5:47
MikeHiggs: But right tho about over excess in government/public services. Need it to keep making up new rules and police the red tape. Cut budgets and who would attend the expensive meetings.

5:48
DaveO: All in All I dont see how europe can ever work as perhaps its founders intended

5:50
MikeHiggs: Maybe its working betterv than they could have hoped for, Common market? My ar**, Federal republic of Europe more like.

5:50
DaveO: That Prodi talks some sense

5:52
DaveO: I mean cultural synergy

5:59
MikeHiggs: Interesting art. and worth a read, C3 will love the “If there is the political will. Look, Germany has a really powerful position right now. Germany is the new China” when they read it

6:00
DaveO: I suppose people power will eventually prevail and the social netwoking revolution will transcend

6:00
DaveO: Yes I thought about C3X reading Prodi

6:02
MikeHiggs: Spitting teeth

6:02
Comment From MikeHiggs
Also eyeing a trade in the EURAUD, a touch of 1.32 or just below and a turn in the MACD may offer 1.34 for a safe exit.

6:03
DaveO: prodi fits C3X take

6:03
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/tdhnfq9

6:05
DaveO: you should have shorted when macd crossed ZL

6:08
MikeHiggs: True, its been a lovely trade today. cant take em all!

6:09
DaveO: ah, u short ?

6:10
Michael: Been out riding bike for past two hours. What did I miss?

6:10
DaveO: ok, gotcha

6:12
MikeHiggs: No, missed the entry, family emergency involving 14 yr old nephew and kitchen knife. Great kid but Asperges Syn. Ok now. so back to trades.

6:15
MikeHiggs: Had it down for an entry @ 1.3639 but was below 1.35 when I got back. would have still been a winner but prefer to get in early or not at all.

6:18
DaveO: I can vouch for Italy producing excellent engineers, she used to be highly competitive

6:25
MikeHiggs: Corruption is endemic though. And to be part of the New Europe, everyone is expected to be Germanic. Italy, Greece, Spain, France are unlikley to rise to that level of efficiency or Germany being eficacious in changing them. Maybe, that might be the change thats needed.

6:25
DaveO: so when you think about it all over the last 30 yrs eu has been the undoing of many countries.

6:26
DaveO: a truly appaling idea

6:28
MikeHiggs: Its been great for some countries, but now both the Union and currency face its 1st real test on economic grounds. short term, its masked the inefficiencies of some nations, now they all want a bailout. Medium term, its a mess, long term, it could work out with chages/exits etc

6:29
DaveO: I spose its a little like schools, the best are always under pressure to stoop to the lowest common denominator

6:29
DaveO: instead of the worst coming up to the best

6:30
MikeHiggs: Thats about the rub of it yes.

6:37
DaveO: gordon bennett, look at gold still trecking sideways

6:44
DaveO: if crude can take 100.74 pivot high might see 102.90

6:45
DaveO: and stil favour gold more upside but starting to lose confidence

6:46
DaveO: ES loada garbage today

6:52
DaveO: C3X trade on eurgbp still hanging dangerously close to stop. Otherwise trade sheet is flat and lookin good.

6:52
C3X: ok am off see you tmrw

6:52
C3X: so didnt eurgbp give u a heads on eur weakness today

6:53
C3X: eurusd 1.3440 while eurgbpo went from 08.590 to .8560

6:53
DaveO: yep sure we discussed it yesterday and GN C3X

6:54
C3X: bye

6:55
DaveO: anyone in the trade could have stopped out early

7:23
Michael: Just took the gold short at 1720.25 with a 1722.5 stop. Lets see what happens

7:24
Alby: did gold went to 1720.25?

7:24
Michael: The mini for February did

7:25
Alby: ok

7:25
Alby: i’m seeing forex broker data

7:25
Alby: does also C3X trade future om gold?

7:26
Michael: No clue they might do the spot market

7:26
Alby: i will ask tomorrow

7:31
Michael: When does the market close game start?

7:31
Alby: what do you mean

7:32
Michael: Guessing the NYSE close

7:32
MikeHiggs: Its started

7:32
Alby: ah+

7:32
MikeHiggs: higher or lower?

7:32
Michael: I think higher for once about +6

7:32
MikeHiggs: spx closwe above 1200 IMO

7:33
Michael: No 1199.5

7:33
Michael: Just to be precise

7:37
MikeHiggs: i dont do precise

8:07
Michael: Anybody doing any trades?

8:07
DaveO: long gold

8:08
Michael: Thanks as I go short

8:08
Michael: Actually DaveO what is your call for close. You usually have the pulse of the market

8:12
DaveO: ES been compleely flat today so anyones guess, internals I mean

8:13
DaveO: pitch for 1202

8:14
mustangrocky: cant play call the close without me

8:14
MikeHiggs: Mustang, wheres my $2

8:14
DaveO: yer lagging mustang

8:15
MikeHiggs: wants to leave it late to call so he dont get wupped!

8:15
mustangrocky: i swear I’ll have it next week. just give me some more time man. my grandmother was sick

8:15
mustangrocky: ha

8:16
Alby: gn

8:17
DaveO: Bye Alby

8:17
MikeHiggs: by

8:18
mustangrocky: i always lose but i feel lucky as ive been hitting all my trades today

8:19
DaveO: we’ll give you another 42 mins to make up your mind

8:19
mustangrocky: hey higgs that eurcad trade is coming close to entry right?

8:21
MikeHiggs: yeh id still like to see it take one more pop down to 1.37 before I enter.

8:22
mustangrocky: i call spx closes at 1200.85

8:23
Michael: Aussie back up to 1.00330 for third time in past couple hours

8:24
DaveO: its all painful

8:24
Michael: Euro has been STUCK at 1.333 since the morning or something like that

8:25
MikeHiggs: I said above 1200, i will stick my kneck out and say 1025/8 overnight. 1200+ by close

8:26
DaveO: cash close

8:26
Michael: Man swissie hasn’t moved in hours either. Glad I went bikeriding since 11. I missed nothing at all from the looks of it. Glad I woke up to trade in middle of night but now I am paying for it. I am real real tired

8:26
DaveO: ES at cash close

8:27
DaveO: close your gold short and get some kip

8:27
MikeHiggs: ES 1198.8 close

8:28
MikeHiggs: even though i dont do precise

8:28
DaveO: cant have .8

8:29
MikeHiggs: no of course not, 8.75 HA HA

8:29
Michael: I have a stop on it. Won’t that work while I sleep?

8:29
DaveO: .75 is nearest

8:30
DaveO: yes but will take your stop as its long play

8:31
Michael: That wouldn’t be awful. It is only $150 loss max

8:32
DaveO: just cannot break through that 100 dma

8:32
Michael: Gold dma or spy dma?

8:32
DaveO: gold

8:34
Michael: What is the 100dma?

8:34
Michael: Honestly I don’t look at gold except for c3x recommendations

8:34
DaveO: 1717.6 on futures

8:37
DaveO: Just noticed C3X gold trade still open

8:38
DaveO: stop 1722

8:43
Comment From MikeHiggs
Watching the USDCAD to see if a tradeable bounce off the bottom of channel appears. Could be good for 100pips.
8:43
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/dg4pd2q

8:49
Michael: I have “qo” for expire 2/12 Gold Mini at 1721. Am I doing the wrong future?

8:53
mustangrocky: what entry are u looking for on usdcad? 1.032?

8:53
Michael: Per his chart 1.029

8:53
Michael: However I just saw a tweet from a forex guy trying to wait for the low of the day again to buy it but I don’t see that happening

8:54
Michael: Might have to wait for Asia for good entry

8:56
Michael: Who had the low number at close?

8:57
DaveO: Higgs

8:57
mustangrocky: higgs had 1198 i think

8:57
MikeHiggs: 1.029 would be a great entry, id still be prepared to enter at 1.0322 depending on price movement.

8:58
MikeHiggs: 1198.75ES

8:58
Michael: What would be your upside target? I bought cAd earlier at 1.0285 and took it for 25 pips but it stalled out after that.
8:59
Michael: You win but none of us were really that close from looks of it

8:59
Michael: 1195

9:01
mustangrocky: id like to see it break down trend line on the 15 min chart. 1.032 would do it for me

9:03
Michael: What would your rather buy a BIg Mac or 1 share of Bank of America? Kind of sad

9:08
Comment From MikeHiggs
If it goes my way will be wanting to get to 1.04. Might have to wait a bit for the pattern to confirm.

9:08
DaveO: have a good evening all and cya tomorrow

9:08
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/nlc3mtc

9:08
MikeHiggs: Later DvO

9:08
Michael: nite

9:40
mustangrocky: what do you think of usdcad? may have to wait for asia

9:49
Comment From MikeHiggs
Entered @ 1.0309. Pattern looks good.
9:49
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/5f8evty

Part of this article was originally published to C3X clients on 28 Nov 2011 early Asia trading time and discussed in the C3X live trading room, on Nov 25 2011 when the S&P was at 1160 and AUD/USD below 0.9688, EURUSD at 1.3230 and USDCAD at 1.0480. Markets have already moved in the direction of trends and trading calls that we have published since then.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

ES Daily charts

Stochastic have rebounded indicating a rebound while the vortex continues to bearish. We expect ES to pull back to 1230 levels which is a developing *confluence* zone.

EU volatility charts leading us

The EUR volatility has been falling over the last few days even while EURUSD has been tracking Italian Yields. We expect in between the EU auctions, EURUSD will find enough reasons to rally given the falling stress in inter bank lending. The stochastics on volatility are falling to a relatively calm lending market.

AUDUSD Daily charts

AUDUSD is a key barometer for risk. We expect AUDUSD to bounce of key FIB levels .9650 to 1.02 levels in Decemeber tracking risk trades.

USD/CAD Daily charts

USD/CAD is leverage play on crude but even then USD/CAD supersede crude over a longer duration. We expect USD/CAD to play ball with risk as USDCAD falls back to 50 MA at 1.0220 levels before Dec is done.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
On fundamental side, we believe that the world is about to crash to a crisis that we may not have seen in our life times. Two of the world largest importers of world trade, China and India are now nearly 200 bps of their peak growth rates with both countries slowing sinking into a political quagmire.

In the euro zone, to everyone utter surprise, Germany is becoming the crux of the problem. Macro economic slowdown and credit markets starting to question the very ability of Germany to be the corner stone of EU bailout. The CDS flew of the handle to 120 from under 100 levels though since then have calmed. But it was a stark reminder to Berlin that “Do not take the bond markets for granted”.

As the crisis has spread over the last six months into the larger peripherals, the need for fiscal consolidation from large euro area member states has increased. Austerity in these larger member states such, as Italy and France, clearly weighs more on euro area economic prospects than does the austerity in smaller countries. Six months ago, we were already predicting a significant tightening of the euro area fiscal stance in 2012.

The failure of the EU authorities to find a solution to the sovereign debt crisis means the downside risks are materializing. The ECB will step in as a temporary buyer of Italian and Spanish bonds but treaty changes and fiscal union are coming our way in 2012. But without the compensating moves on the political front, markets will fear this as politically unsustainable.

The trouble is, we fear the impact of fiscal tightening on broader economic activity is itself increasing, that is, the fiscal multiplier is growing. We think this for two reasons. First, the crisis is having a materially greater impact on the bank credit channel. Second, the austerity has been insufficient to inject confidence back into markets, with the danger that it loops back into the economy with no tangible benefits seen in which case a greater level of austerity will be demanded which will then shrink growth even further.
Consumer and Industrial Confidence

The consumer and Industrial confidence in Germany are being dragged down by EU debt crisis. It is a matter of time before the Debt crisis will fully engulf the German economy, something the EUR founders need to happen if their dream for EU fiscal union needs to be realized.

German Debt holding

Significant portion of German debt is held by foreigners and hence making the Germany economy extremely susceptible to volatility.

EU Debt redemption in 2012
In other part of the world, both India and China are struggling with rising Yield and FX issues over and above a slowing consumer growth .
Expected auctions by Italy and Spain are upwards of 500 bn euros. With bond markets nearly calling a strike on Italy and Spain, we expect to be catastrophic defaults across EU zone with crisis dragging right to the German doorsteps. We expect the auctions will drag EUR/USD to parity in 2012.

Spreads are pointing to imminent Inversion

Spreads between 2y and 30 y are falling below key levels which are indicating to severe liquidity crunch which will now boil into the larger economy.

German CDS springing

Italian Yields refusing to calm

Italy, the third largest bond market in the world, is now defining the EURUSD moves. It is no more Germany which leads EURUSD moves, but in a strange sense, Italy defines the EU zone destiny.

On the other side of the coin, US economy has maintained a certain sense of calm but we believe this is temporary.
US home sales

The US home sales while have held up till now are now weakening again. The case shiller index has been stable after a 35% correction but is now ready to begin the decline as financial markets pay scale takes a drop and speculation starts to ebb away given the rising 2Y yields on US treasury (key schemes through which banks and speculators borrowed for speculation).

Emerging Markets
India
The Indian economy today has more depth and breadth than a decade ago but it is also more vulnerable to global cycles and high expectations from investors and its own population. A year ago, India boasted the best performing stock market in Asia, surging foreign investment flows, and confidence among observers and policymakers about growth exceeding 9 percent for years to come. In a striking turnaround, a year of persistently high inflation, an anaemic investment cycle, repeated governance scandals, and little movement in market friendly reforms have soured the underlying economic dynamic and market sentiments. Coupled with
substantial headwind from the debt crisis in industrialized economies, much of the exuberance associated with India has dissipated, and India’s perennial Achilles’ Heel, a pernicious combination of trade and fiscal deficits, has come back under scrutiny. We believe that India is on a structural slowdown for the next half a decade thus affecting world growth as a whole of till the time a second reform revolution brings about change.

China
China’s October trade surplus amounted to USD17bn and inward FDI amounted to USD8bn, the size of outflow of capital (which includes authorized outward FDI, portfolio outflow, private sector purchase of forex, as well as hot money outflows, among others) was substantial. It obviously reflected the expectation of RMB depreciation by some market participants. The negative net forex purchase by the PBOC leads to a contraction of RMB liquidity in the banking system, initially by the amount PBOC forex sales, and over a period of time this contractionary effect will be multiplied by the money multiplier (3.7x time). This exacerbates the downward pressure on the deposit base in the banking system and makes it more difficult
for banks to fund their lending activities. This will have severe consequences for Chinese credit markets as we already see wild volatile movement in China CDS spreads. China may no longer be the net importer of world trade and hence pushing the ball back into US and EU courts.

We believe, far from solving any crisis, the world has sunk deeper into a crisis whose depth and breadth will surprise everyone. Bond markets are ready to come calling as they take no prisoners once they decide to call the bluff. But we also believe that 2012 will see EU fiscal union being enacted post which we expect EURUSD to spring back to 1.5 and then continue the rise given the coming holocaust of US Municipal Bond run starting Oct 2012.

The immediate short term, we expect markets to well bid in Dec till the summit on 9th . We expect EURUSD to recover smartly and risk assets to post gains. The sante rally, however suppressed it maybe, is now upon us. Santa may just be a bit pale this time around.

C3X

All pictures and charts are stripped off from this transcript.

4:08
C3X: hey folks
4:08
C3X: gm
4:09
C3X: that italian IMF rumor got the gaps this morn
4:10
C3X: eurusd audusd has a commendable opening gaps
4:10
C3X: is that enough for the much talked about rebound
4:10
C3X: imf has already denied
4:10
C3X: but those gaps have not closed

4:10
Comment From Willba
There is still a decent gap of 17 points on S&P500 Future

4:24
C3X: our bias for a strong rebound is materialiazing

4:24
C3X: 1.3835 on eur and 1.,02 in aud is what we are looking for in dec

4:24
C3X: the dec 9 summit build up is going to help

4:24
Willba: Yeah and the talk of the “elite” bonds may assist

4:24
C3X: there will be a lot of talk and rumors will assit

4:24
Willba: agreed

4:24
C3X: yea those kinds of rumors..”elite bond”

4:25
C3X: what a joke

4:25
Willba: haha

4:25
C3X: A new book needs to be written about these rumors mongers “The are of rumor making”

4:25
C3X: The art of rumor making

4:25
C3X: how do they do it

4:26
Comment From StAloyboy
Hi c3x

4:28
C3X: fact that these rumors are mostly coming out of german and french newspapers makes me wonder

4:30
Willba: its not helpful at all!

5:43
Willba: Do youhave any of those in the entry zone im seeing a few that are

5:44
C3X: which?

5:45
Willba: AUD and EURGBP

5:45
C3X: yes

5:45
Willba: and EURusd

5:45
C3X: eurusd vols have fallen to lower boundary

5:45
C3X: 15

5:45
C3X: so logic behind eurusd longs even before the bond market opened was the falling vols in EU zone in spot markets

5:53
C3X: charts added

5:59
C3X: eu vol charts added

6:00
C3X: usdchf er lowered and executed

6:00
C3X: .9280/.93

6:01
C3X: .9284 with stop lowered to .393

6:01
C3X: .933

6:02
C3X: usdchf is sustaining SNB intervention but if risk moderately picks up…usdchf will be ahrdest to fall

6:03
C3X: pls keep checking trade sheet

6:07
Willba: seeing a few rumors the SNB may move peg

6:09
Willba: their is to be an announcement @ 1700GMT

6:12
C3X: yea if there is rumor ..nothing will happen

6:28
C3X: please do not make excuses later….you have the trade sheet in front of you and emailed

6:28
C3X: so please look and observe and analyse which trades to take

7:07
C3X: ECB noyer to speak but more importantly keep a watch for ECB PURCHASES

7:07
Willba: what time?

7:07
C3X: france auction is to be followed by what ECB will announce

7:07
C3X: the spot market seem to suggesting that ecb is purchasing

7:14
C3X: 14:30 london

7:14
C3X: the first sheet was sent out at 5:10 Am lond time I

7:14
C3X: plu minus

7:14
C3X: yes 2 hours since the first sheet

7:15
C3X: executed trades post that

7:15
C3X: there were changes to audusd er and usdchf er

7:15
C3X: I have concerns that it will go back and fill gaps

7:15
C3X: but valid concerns but given the strength in asia

7:15
C3X: am not sure

7:16
Comment From OzMoneyman
Hi Cx3 I just got your latest trade sheet and the one before that. It says these trades have been executed. According to my charts that was over 2 hours ago. Am I missing something?I am just a little confused

7:16
Comment From OzMoneyman
Also do you have any concerns about several of the pairs going back and filling the gaps first?

7:16
Comment From OzMoneyman
ok thx

7:16
C3X: all answered above

7:17
C3X: please make sure your cards have balance on it if you are nearing your payment dates…one member did not have the balance and iut was automatically suspended.

7:18
C3X: even our special request to allow him could not be processed as support had suspended him

7:18
OzMoneyman: gee I better tell the missus to stop shopping in the middle of the month!!!!!!

7:18
C3X: so if we notice that someone we know has made a geniune mistake then we can request support to adjust till he pays…but once suspended we are helpless

7:20
C3X: and for support team which by the way is not a simple outsourcing telecalling set of guys but reasonable smart marketing guys who fundamental job is to manage accounts but first priority is to manage institution relations

7:20
C3X: so please take care…ok back to trading

7:21
C3X: very strong open on eu

7:21
C3X: this is the third time in last 4 weeks we have had such gaps in opening

7:21
C3X: will it be third time lucky for gaps

7:21
C3X: prev two gaps were fakes as fx fell below gaps in 3 to 4 hours

7:22
C3X: or above gaps

7:22
C3X: as the case may be

7:22
OzMoneyman: there will be a few upside down for sure…

7:22
C3X: keep a watch on that strong developing conflucne indicated in todays charts on ES

7:22
C3X: 1230 IS THE LEVEL to which they are all getting attraceted

7:22
C3X: reasonable level to expect ind dec

7:24
OzMoneyman: I always find it difficult to trade mondays when there is such a strong gap…it’s like a beacon saying “come get me please”

7:26
C3X: and also never in 50 YEARS OF data has S&P lost on q3 AND Not been possitive in S&P

7:27
C3X: u cld wait for stochastics to build above 50

7:27
OzMoneyman: and the possibility that it was most likely based on rumours

7:27
C3X: if it was pure rumor things shld have cooled off…there are other reasons…

7:27
C3X: elite bonds, dec 9 summit or retail sales or german CDS may have run up too much

7:27
C3X: etc etc

7:28
OzMoneyman: agreed

7:46
C3X: ok final set of ers hits and our final trades on the other extreme of er executed

7:46
C3X: entry range=er

7:49
OzMoneyman: Italian rates 2yr =8+%

7:49
C3X: huge inversion

7:57
C3X: Italy will be bailed out

7:57
C3X: no doubt

7:57
C3X: but what the EU leaders are struggling to do is how to fool the markets given the size…

7:57
C3X: so IMF and ECB together need to come out with a trillion package

7:58
C3X: trial will never be long enough

7:59
C3X: I can assure you that we all love to hang on free but then the concept is simple: “we work hard and we need to be paid”. Yes web is full of free advice but not even one will put their performance nor ever tell you that they trade their own fund

8:00
C3X: so irrespective of results during trial, we need you to pay up as we value our time

8:00
C3X:

8:00
C3X: yes agree steep is the right word

8:00
C3X: but we have been there unless you have traded fore on yield before

8:00
Comment From Mark H
All good…very steep learning curve for a tech trader…somewhat difficult with out a live room…seeing your charts would help enormously…nothing in life is free….

8:02
C3X: but make no mistake: Yields and credit market deteremine fx.. and am yet to find a decent bond trading room

8:02
C3X: on the internet

8:02
Comment From DaveO
Good morning C3X and traders

8:03
C3X: charts are bing put in todays sheet….they wil be added

8:03
C3X: keep a watch on those confluence developing on es

8:03
C3X: audusd lost all its fall momentum on friday…

8:04
C3X: candle traders will tell you that both ES and Aud candles were indicating exhasuting last candle on friday

8:04
Comment From Mark H
Been doing this 5 years…and i have never seen a bond room…out there.

8:04
Comment From Mark H
Never traded yield but would love to be able to see charts and other information that must be rushing past your eyes C3X..much easier way to learn

8:04
C3X: promise more charts will come your way this week

8:04
C3X: it will always be on trade sheet

8:04
Mark H: thnx…

8:05
C3X: never understood what a tech trader means?

8:05
Willba: italian bond yeild drop fast

8:05
C3X: imo only traders exist

8:05
C3X: traders have to be know everything otherwise what is the point of trading

8:05
C3X: by calling tech trader we are hugely disadvantaged

8:05
C3X: that is just my viewpoint

8:06
C3X: we have to be both: funda, tech and everything else

8:06
C3X: what ever the name is…if tmrw someone asks of what is happening in italy, we should be able to say 3 updated lines of the country finances, politics..etc

8:07
C3X: that is a good trader

8:07
C3X: ecb

8:07
C3X: draghi may be driving to his office…

8:07
Mark H: good point…as with everything I am always learning…for small moves tech has worked for me …always need more skills and info, I agree

8:08
C3X: .9313 level in usdchf is a huge level

8:08
C3X: barriers at .9320 25 etc

8:08
C3X: which is why stops

8:08
C3X: there

8:10
C3X: 5 bn treasury purchase which will release cash into markets

8:10
C3X: asia opened strongly on that

8:10
C3X: am talking of fed purcase

8:10
C3X: then short term auctions for 56 bn on 3 and 6 month

8:11
C3X: so two forces at play today

8:12
C3X: france auctions earlier…then ecb announces its purchase then fed releases cash via purcahse of 10 year and then pulls cash out in 3M and 6M

8:12
Willba: DAX with big gap!

8:15
Alby: i have my twitter searching for “IMF”, “ECB” and “belgium bond auction”

8:16
Alby: C3X, what else?

8:17
Alby: elite bonds?

8:18
C3X: as far as I know the auction results are at 11

8:18
Alby: yes

8:19
Alby: 11 gmt

8:19
C3X: yes

8:19
C3X: today will be interesting end of day NY…am expecting 1180 on sp

8:19
C3X: 1183

8:19
C3X: but how it reacts from there will be very imp

8:19
C3X: am expecting it to hold upper range

8:20
C3X: but if treasury auction saps liquidity, anything can happen

8:20
C3X: Yes I dont think SNB will interevne when eurusd is doing well

8:34
C3X: any tech geeks here have an idea if ipad 3 is ever coming out?

8:34
C3X: cause too me apple is huge short cause if they dont bring out something, samsun will steam roll apple

8:35
DaveO: where did IMF get some new money. I find the rumour difficult to believe

8:35
Willba: yeah sharp is producing new HD screen in both Ipad size and iphone new size

8:46
C3X: IMF does not have the money but they can raise it

8:46
C3X: but I dont think IMF is the reason for sustained move eurusd

8:47
C3X: italian yileds have compressed and I think we beging the journey to 1230 on spo

8:47
C3X: sp

8:47
C3X: and a rally till dec 9…

8:58
C3X: charts added

9:04
Alby: i hipe spon is here and he has taken today C3X trades

9:04
Alby: i hope

9:06
Alby: regarding his frustration about last week trades

9:06
Alby: C3X last week % win was 31%

9:07
Alby: so not the good week considering PIPS

9:07
Alby: but as a learning process

9:07
Alby: it was a good week

9:45
DaveO: Alby, do you hashtag your twitter every new day or do you enter all bond auctions you wish to watch for the next month or so. I imagine cannot use terms #Italyauctions or we would get every antique furniture and car auction in Italy. House auctions et al.

9:52
DaveO: Just a point of interest re the SPX daily cash chart. Friday saw a gravestone dogi which I believe is about as bearish as you can get for candle analysis. I used to rate candle analysis once upon a time until Greenspan frigged just about everything.

9:55
DaveO: So I don’t give much credence to candles except to note with interest. Fractal pivots are far more meaningful imo together with the laws of nature.

10:00
DaveO: EU 1.3400 is trend line resistance on H.4 as of current candle.

10:02
DaveO: exactly at C3X tp.2

10:07
C3X: is spon bart?

10:07
C3X: auduusd and eurusd cleans out targets..now waiting for es

10:07
C3X: so finally we get hold of counters

10:07
C3X: took some time coming

10:08
C3X: usdchf too hits targets

10:08
DaveO: audusd trend resistance at 0.9975 as of today candle

10:08
C3X: usdcad hits targets

10:10
DaveO: usdchf trend support at 0,9160 as of today candle

10:12
DaveO: @C3X, I notice on short trades your TP1 and TP2 are always reversed in the trade table. Meant to mention it few weeks ago.

10:12
C3X: well we took them out before these lines…

10:12
C3X: will tkae care

10:13
DaveO: Yep sure and very prudent !

10:13
DaveO: the lines need a margin of tolerance

10:14
C3X: yes

10:14
DaveO: most (but not all) linesmen would admit

10:14
C3X: am just really wondering if that IMF reumor has more to it

10:14
C3X: or is this pure market coming back to mean

10:15
DaveO: I tend to think mkt reacting to blow off pressure releif valve

10:15
C3X: yes

10:15
DaveO: its why I post the trend lines to see what happens there

10:15
C3X: lots of money flowing out of bunds

10:15
C3X: where will money flow when it flows out of bond markets

10:16
C3X: it can reserve here and there for a few days but ultimately it needs to flow into aud,cads and risk assets

10:16
C3X: bunds are falling off a cliff here

10:17
C3X: too make money off chf when SNB was guarding it gives some satisfaction

10:17
C3X: but I think it is consolidating before it breaks .9313

10:18
DaveO: not much confidence in bond mkts Sovereign safe havens not what they used to be

10:18
DaveO: what about corporate bonds, the biggies ?

10:19
C3X: agree.

10:19
DaveO: the blues

10:19
C3X: which can u name which u consider safe

10:19
DaveO: oh blimey , hate that word “safe”

10:20
DaveO: miners worth considering for one

10:20
DaveO: needs research

10:21
DaveO: gene technology will be one of the next parabolic bull movers

10:22
Alby: DaveO i hastag my twitter everyday

10:22
DaveO: scanner manufacturers (as in preventative medicare)

10:22
Alby: i’m searching how to better use twitter

10:23
DaveO: Ok Alby, seems to me it needs a generic template to cover at least one month requirements

10:24
Comment From Willba
Bonds vs German 10yr

10:25
C3X: hope todays trades were all super clear

10:25
Alby: yes

10:26
C3X: hate to see 24 hours laters if subs come and tell me “how could you say it hit targets when it was never executed”

10:26
Alby: took USDCHF

10:26
C3X: thats the best one isnt it

10:26
C3X: SNB rumor flying around

10:26
C3X: and yet CHF strengthens in their face

10:27
DaveO: hehe

10:27
C3X: but I think usdcad is headed 1.0250 and audusd 1.02

10:27
C3X: es 1220

10:27
Alby: i also liked USDCHF strtucture

10:28
Alby: we may wait for retracement up and short usdcahf again

10:28
DaveO: it made a double top on Friday with the Oct high

10:28
Alby: yes

10:28
Alby: noticed

10:29
Alby: gold at 100% sym

10:32
DaveO: 2 or 3 trend support lines for usdcad, the uper one been kissed now and the next one down at 1.0240 at today candle

10:33
DaveO: EU now reacting of its resistance line

10:35
C3X: Once again the request to you all: Make sure you have credit cards which are valid. We cannot keep requesting support to allow subs who have not paid up and who will do so 24 hours and 36 hours later cause the card is not the right card etc reasons.

10:35
DaveO: audusd hit both targets, you gottit awaiting execution

10:36
C3X: the support team is diff from us and we are slightly more bigger than you consider us. and separate teams manage separate parts. what you see probably a small part of the whole unit

10:36
C3X: so that we maintain our relations with support, make sure everything is smooth

10:37
Alby: ok. i have to remember this in jannuarry

10:37
DaveO: ah, I didnt realise that, I knew support was delegated operation

10:38
C3X: at least three member got suspended which subs are maintaining through emails to me directly as that it is a small misunderstanding. We understand that but support has become very stricti on these issues

10:38
C3X: and I know these subs for atleast 3 monts now

10:39
DaveO: you need a gofer to adjust the trade sheet and keep checking accuracy.

10:39
C3X: so am sure it was a mistake but support team which really is not a support but a team which has been growing

10:39
DaveO: tea boy would do.

10:39
C3X: support does none of that but we do so all the mistakes

10:41
DaveO: Is this all thrpough paypal, the credit card hassle ?

10:41
C3X: yes

10:41
C3X: see this firm is exapnding into singapore, China and India

10:42
DaveO: Always amases me how bad the paypal account management web site

10:42
C3X: where biggere hedge fund and bank treasury have noted our product and research and have signed up in a big way

10:42
C3X: so support team itself has traders in it

10:42
DaveO: nearly as bad as utility sites

10:42
C3X: but recent recruits

10:42
C3X: and some are to be fair quite rude

10:43
C3X: no options as paypal still is doing adecent job

10:43
DaveO: fasttrader was quite polite I thought

10:43
C3X: we cant deal with bank gateways and do all that…

10:44
C3X: the retail product is quite a small offering

10:44
C3X: and works on the signal which is strength

10:44
C3X: but treasury needs a bit more of reseaarch and spoon feeding

10:44
Willba: do you mind me asking, how many subs do you have via this site?

10:44
C3X: sarah?

10:45
C3X: I remeber u asking me that eariler?

10:45
C3X:

10:45
DaveO: ah, was fasttrader Sarah, I didnt realise that

10:45
C3X: it changes as now there is a flux…….221 moved to 231 then 190 then 210

10:45
C3X: sarah is the main contact for retail

10:45
Willba: ok cool thanks for sharing that

10:45
C3X: she does not have any other name

10:46
DaveO: Sarah very hard working gal, all day Sundays !

10:46
C3X: sundays?

10:46
C3X: well that is new to me…maybe they do

10:47
DaveO: Oh yeah, there was one sunday when we were emailing almost non stop

10:47
DaveO: I apogised for ruing her sundayu and she replied its normal for her to work sunday

10:48
Willba: you guys have inspired me to start my own service similar to yours one day

10:49
Mark H: Thanks for the charts C3X…

10:49
C3X:

10:49
C3X: @Willba best of luck

10:49
C3X: do give us a chance to subscribe

10:49
C3X: if you dont mind

10:49
C3X: we will pay in full

10:49
Willba: my first sub

10:49
C3X: sure

10:50
Willba: im working with someone now about building an algo and testing and testing

10:50
C3X: my suggestion stay away from spot light

10:50
C3X: takes a whole lot of pressure of you

10:50
DaveO: you might live to regret that Willba, big commitment !

10:50
Willba: its what i really want to do.

10:50
C3X: if you are in this for just making money of fees, may not work..but if this is a challenge…it will work

10:51
Willba: oh its the challenege

10:51
C3X:

10:51
DaveO: I always say that if you decide to help others you end up helping yourself as well

10:51
C3X: once you start hopefully we can chat oflline someday…or when am in Australian

10:51
C3X: I agree DaveO

10:51
DaveO: mainly on disciplines

10:52
C3X: ok folks…general talk over and back to trading

10:53
C3X: we will getting in on a few trades again later today

10:53
Willba: right back to it

11:01
DaveO: did anyone tell spon NOT to take counter trades

11:01
Alby: i did

11:01
DaveO: we all did and now look what happened

11:02
Alby: i forgot to tell him to take only the one more obious

11:02
Alby: lol

11:03
Alby: OBVIOUS

11:03
C3X:

11:05
DaveO: its why I say the service is not suited to novice traders. So Willba, when you start your own service you need to decide where in the trading education market to pitch your service. Its not easy to differentiate and filter.

11:05
Alby: i do think traders must start to understand the logic behind C3X trades

11:05
C3X: sorry not meant for this window

11:06
C3X: was chatting with a friend on bloomberg

11:07
DaveO: I once thought about a commercial service and decides I only wanted intermediate level traders so would conduct an online interview for any candidates How arrogant is that.

11:08
DaveO: you talkin about AL @ C3X ? lol

11:08
C3X: sorry really not supposed tobe herethat comment

11:08
DaveO:

11:08
C3X: how do we edit the comments on this window

11:08
C3X: need to delete that

11:09
DaveO: moderator should be able to delete

11:09
C3X: will have lawsuitso on me

11:09
C3X: yea I know

11:09
DaveO: you didnt mention any names

11:10
C3X: done

11:10
DaveO: and the one I mentioned has never answered the question when anyone questoned him.

11:10
C3X: I took a simple chart and re modelled the whole think and I still got stinky emails

11:10
DaveO: I know

11:11
C3X: I would never complain if he took any thing from here

11:11
C3X:

11:11
DaveO: probably has representation here.

11:12
C3X: among tech analysisI always like cadnles

11:12
C3X: candles

11:12
C3X: yes but its fine

11:13
C3X: at leastwe have forced him to work harder he knows that we

11:13
C3X: are here

11:13
C3X: am expecting aussie to come back .9850

11:13
C3X: or .9870

11:13
C3X: by the wya do keep a watch on JGB

11:14
C3X: 10y yields have carefully been moving up

11:14
C3X: reflecting yen moves

11:18
Willba: quick off topic question, do you use a unique algo for all pairs?

11:27
DaveO: its a not a fair question Willba now that you have declared your intentions

11:28
DaveO: industrial epionage

11:28
Willba: hehe this is true…. thanks dave0

11:29
DaveO: I was in the motor sport industry where secrecy was paramount

11:29
DaveO: R&D

11:29
Comment From mustangrocky
italy, belgium and spanish 10 year yields are down but german 10 year is up. interesting

11:30
C3X: its the same algo

11:30
C3X: but tweeked on days and duration used for diff pairs and assets

11:30
C3X: as far as we can see, crude has refused to obey the rules in the last 1 month

11:31
DaveO: crude is obeying risk appetite rules today

11:31
C3X: yes was talking earlier

11:31
C3X: when it did not

11:32
DaveO: yep

11:32
Alby: thanks to crude….. JiNU left

11:32
C3X: now the pack is all moving together as usual

11:32
C3X: yes

11:33
DaveO: one of the many skills is how to read correlations inverting temporarily. Its always a little frustrating

11:33
C3X: actually when correlations break is when you can make the maximum money

11:34
C3X: aud gave us 300 pips while cad remained suppressed a long time at 1.017 and then when it broke out after days of hatching, it took to 1.05

11:34
DaveO: Y

11:36
DaveO: my gold count was pretty good but the B wave continued into an abc:B

11:36
DaveO: so even gold is back correlated today, dare I say it.

11:50
DaveO: @C3X, do you mind if I post the Kyle Bass bbc interview link. I thought he handled the very aggressive interviewer with great skill and confidence.

11:51
DaveO: and interesting content on his trading

12:00
C3X: not at all

12:00
C3X: please go ahead

12:00
mustangrocky: great interview

12:00
C3X: and post what you like as long its about trading

12:01
DaveO: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-un-edited-buying-gold-just-buying-put-against-idiocy-political-cycle-its-simple

12:01
DaveO: its a long video so save it for later !

12:02

12:03
DaveO: Damn I didnt mean to do that, dont know what happened there

12:03
C3X: I did unfortunately

12:03
C3X: u want me to remove it

12:03
C3X: ?

12:03
DaveO: ah, lol. no prob

12:03
Willba: no please dont its good

12:03
C3X: yep I thought so

12:04
DaveO: thought it might take bandwidth

12:04
C3X: This IMF story about taking over ECB is as far as you can get from the truth

12:04
C3X: its truly unbelievable

12:04
DaveO: yes agree

12:05
C3X: but today I think yields have come down on ECB

12:05
C3X: intervention

12:05
DaveO: unless to speed uip the demise of Merkel ?

12:05
C3X: merkel is a place holder

12:05
C3X: real founders of this movement will come once Germany is tryuly in crisis

12:06
C3X: from January week2 I am expecting a free fall

12:06
C3X: in risk

12:06
DaveO: parity or below levels

12:06
C3X: yes

12:06
DaveO: I am ready and willing for it

12:07
DaveO: but first the irrational Santa rally is on the cards

12:10
C3X: even novices will come and tell you “see I told you eur was bad fx”

12:10
C3X: I have a fresher with me who tells me he can see eur disintegrating

12:10
C3X: I told him to do some homework and assignments and prove it to me

12:11
DaveO: I dont blame him

12:11
C3X: intern

12:11
C3X: think out of the box…and I think the problem most traders are too drunk to think outside the box

12:11
DaveO: yes true

12:11
C3X: they all trade the herd

12:12
DaveO: beyond the zee !!!!!!!!

12:12
C3X:

12:13
DaveO: When my grandsons are a little older I have that Dr Zeus book awaiting their attention

12:14
DaveO: Dr Seuss, oops

12:15
DaveO: right now the attention span is a little limited and prone to distractions

12:17
DaveO: trading = human psychology. Everyone likes to feel great by the time Christmas arrives.

12:18
DaveO: especially Lloyd Blanfein.

12:19
C3X: pls make sure everyone has seen the new trade sheet

12:19
C3X: we are waiting for new ER levels

12:20
DaveO: so the intruction to his algo techies will be out to run the mkts up

12:20
C3X: ecb BS is 200 bn while fed is 1.8

12:20
C3X: the room to runup money supply M3 is massive

12:20
C3X: in EU zone

12:21
C3X: and imagine even 200 bn bs eurusd is at 1.3 and still has a relatively smaller deficit than US

12:21
C3X: imagine is fiscal uniuon is achieved by which time you will have ECB having BS of 1.1 trillion

12:21
C3X: and eur to have atleast 50% of world trade

12:21
DaveO: Yeah you said that already. My memory retention is like an 18 yr old for trading matters

12:22
C3X: no one is looking at these things…everyone is too focussed on debt / gdp of greece

12:22
C3X: look at california debt/gdp

12:22
C3X: but then FED can print

12:23
C3X: bloomberg boys can chart the yield spread between finland and sweeden

12:23
C3X: one CB can print while the other cannot within EU itself…

12:23
C3X: and see how the yields have moved for those who can print and who cannot print

12:25
DaveO: makes UK look far better than it is

12:25
C3X: finland has jumped in by over 100 bps

12:25
C3X: sweden has fallen by 50 bps

12:25
C3X: DaveO move ur assets while you can

12:25
C3X: maybe 6-8 more months

12:26
C3X: question is wher?

12:26
C3X: we dont have an answer

12:26
DaveO: under the matress safest place at mo

12:26
C3X: iron matterss or foan

12:26
C3X: foam

12:26
C3X: foam is not safe

12:27
C3X: what I mean is no place safe

12:27
DaveO: wife says not comfortable, too risky

12:27
C3X: yep

12:28
DaveO: hole in garden, dunno

12:28
DaveO: its a difficult problem

12:29
DaveO: and then later u up against money laundering rules

12:30
DaveO: secret swiss bank account, u can forget that idea now

12:31
mustangrocky: the swiss sold everyone out

12:31
mustangrocky: so much for being neutral

12:31
DaveO: y

12:32
DaveO: on the other hand the rich/poor divide is now chronically unfair

12:35
C3X: will be away

1:55
DaveO: test

1:55
Alby: ok

1:56
DaveO: tank, just checking for timeouts. seems to be good now

1:57
DaveO: Alby I am deep into looking at exchanges. They all change so often !

1:59
DaveO: audusd daily right on trend resistance line.

2:00
DaveO: chief linesman absent from duty today

2:02
DaveO: prob at german language school

2:03
DaveO: usdchf gravestone doji on daily and about to kiss trend support

2:09
DaveO: my next offline biz to start a driving school, teach brits to drive right hand side in 4hr high speed lesson.

2:10
Willba: interesting

2:10
DaveO: and teach lane discipline. French are much better at lane discipline than brits. Their roads much better also

2:14
DaveO: Brits are very good at queueing

2:15
DaveO: germans good at bagging all the sunbeds on holiday.

2:15
Comment From sponn
Hello. Thx c3x for your help

2:15
C3X: welcome back

2:15
C3X: do go thru all transcripts before

2:16
DaveO: so we all different and dont know if we can all live together in peace, harmony and mutual prosperity

2:18
DaveO: I like to see different culures, not all the same

2:18
DaveO: like lazy greeks in their super tavernas

2:19
DaveO: and their wonderful history

2:20
DaveO: germans would build airports over their greek mythology sites. Lots of concrete good for economy

2:21
DaveO: what would germans do with Rome ?

2:22
DaveO: zee vatican

2:25
DaveO: So the USE will not be all good news, not at all

2:31
DaveO: Its our duty to trade eu below parity, 0.2000 should do the trick

2:32
DaveO: meanwhile looking long

2:33
Willba: US index’s opening up with a bang

2:33
Willba: all up 2.5%

2:34
DaveO: yep

2:34
C3X: did anyone get the eurusd second time

2:34
DaveO: I’m long

2:34
C3X: u r long is fine…but did anyone get the eurusd at 1.3340

2:34
Willba: na was 7 pips outside entry and was a little busy with algo dev

2:34
C3X: ok good

2:35
DaveO: 3346 the low

2:37
C3X: what is incredible easch and every trade missed Entry by 6 pips

2:38
C3X: usdcad 1.0344 usdchf .9223 and eurusd 1.3347

2:38
DaveO: well, discretionary entries appropriate

2:39
DaveO: bearing in mind the evidence of risk appetite

2:39
C3X: usdchf ma was at 9233

2:39
C3X: expected .9230

2:39
C3X: anyway cant complain

2:40
C3X: expecting to es complete the targets

2:41
DaveO: 1190 made

2:44
DaveO: not sure eurgbp gonna be great with strong risk on

2:44
Alby: yes

2:44
Alby: i was long at the begining of the session

2:44
Alby: ut then scaratched

2:45
DaveO: probably wise. It was an early call anyway

2:45
Alby: yes

2:47
DaveO: everything flirting with trend lines now.

2:51
OzMoneyman: C3x do you by any chance keep a summary of the trades you take in a week. the reason I ask is that I would like to do some calculations of trend versus counter trend in the results.

3:29
DaveO: http://www.businessinsider.com/core-unit-labor-costs-in-germany-2011-11 I wonder how this would look without the mergence of the east giving the benefit of very low labour rates

3:32
DaveO: so one could argue that germany delegating work to the east has denied their other friends on the medatarranian etc.

3:35
DaveO: interesting how easily we can be misled

3:37
DaveO: wish we could edit posts to correct spelling

3:39
Alby: http://chart.ly/9mx5bca

3:39
Alby: possible long above 0.8607

3:42
DaveO: yes but its slow work.

3:42
Alby: y

3:42
Alby: not impressed about it

3:42
DaveO: That should speed it up

3:50
DaveO: eu sym looking like3344 or 3330

3:51
DaveO: my entry 3347

3:53
DaveO: 3337

3:54
Alby: early this morning you entered long there?

3:54
DaveO: yes about 9.00 gmt

3:55
Alby: ok

3:56
Alby: USDCHF almost in the C3X selling zone

3:56
Alby: 100% sym at 0.9231 and 127.2% at 0.9244

3:58
DaveO: yep. and daily on trend support

3:58
DaveO: bit below the LOD

3:59
DaveO: everything is on trend support or resist

3:59
Alby: what level did you go long ES?

4:00
DaveO: 1181.25

4:01
Alby: ok almost same time of EURUSD long trade

4:02
DaveO: yes several about the same time, once I was fully awake

4:05
DaveO: remember I use C3X bias and my own entries and trade management

4:05
Alby: i know

4:06
DaveO: and sometimes my own “bias”

4:06
C3X: spike in italy

4:06
DaveO: like counter averse

4:06
C3X: but right now fed is conductiing 3m and 6m liquidity sapping auction

4:07
DaveO: paracites ?

4:07
Comment From sponn
C3X thx again for a temporary account and your support.. Looks like i,ve resubscribed and everything should be fine now

4:07
Alby: sapping?

4:07
DaveO: blood sucking Alby

4:07
Alby: ah

4:07
C3X: auction is liquidity sapping and purchase is liquidity providing

4:08
C3X: dealt with this concept earlier in day

4:08
DaveO: the donor and the recipient

4:08
Alby: let me review

4:08
DaveO: the driver and the passenger

4:09
DaveO: the spender and the saver

4:09
Alby: ok

4:09
DaveO: the irresponsible and the responsible

4:10
C3X: we expected this which is why eurusd entry was where it is

4:11
DaveO: but the irresonsible far outweigh the responsible now so where does it all end ?

4:12
DaveO: bluwy great deep black hole

4:15
C3X: which is why we had eurusd entry where it was

4:16
C3X: now for the pan to work, we need eurusd to go higher within the next 30 min

4:16
C3X: plan

4:17
C3X: DaveO will tell you that chart resistances etc but we will tell you that fed calendar of auctions and purchase resulted in this and at the same time Italy yields has moved from 7.03 to 7.2

4:17
C3X: but they all mysteriously come together

4:17
DaveO: it is weird to say the least

4:17
C3X: I dont know why market obey these resistances etc like audusd at .9980

4:18
C3X: read a note from DB that .9980 is huge level

4:18
C3X: and they drew some weird looking lines and fib levels and made it look as comlex as possible

4:18
C3X: but seems markets respected

4:20
DaveO: nah its just the trend resistance line drawn from 1.0752 high on daily

4:21
DaveO: and the low was at confluence of 78.6% ret and 100% symmetry

4:22
DaveO: its all easy peasy, haha

4:24
DaveO: if its any consolation the NYSE internals lookin strong still on this current ret except vix making new HOD

4:33
DaveO: shame MH not here because EU broke his wedgie making the lows on Friday and now its up against the top of his wedge rejecting it twice on H.4 t/f

4:34
C3X: @Ozmoneymand u asked something about summary of trades. whAT Is that?

4:34
C3X: I put it out as performance on the perf sheet

4:34
C3X: which is nothijng but all trades of the week which were closed

4:34
DaveO: think he want an excell

4:35
C3X: Oh man: why do you all need an excel?

4:35
C3X:

4:35
DaveO:

4:35
C3X: do you have that kind of time to do double analysis on our trades

4:35
C3X: anyways ur choice…will send it if you send an email

4:36
DaveO: to guage the counter trend trades

4:36
C3X: yea its really bad…now how does it matter if the success is 15% or 20% or 25%

4:36
C3X: as long as it is far below 70%, does not matter at all

4:36
DaveO: pin you down C3X

4:37
C3X: yea…not that we have ever boasted in the face ….a little hurray here and there

4:37
DaveO: What was it Alby on your analysis

4:38
C3X: will eu disspoint today…every one from mom and pop expected 1.343

4:38
C3X: italy yields are not exactly good

4:38
DaveO: today counters superb this morning

4:38
C3X: alby did some work I think

4:39
Alby: i was not following

4:39
DaveO: ok, it made 127.2% ext so lets see what happens here

4:39
C3X: is that the symmetery

4:40
DaveO: On your excell did you rate the counter trend trades

4:40
C3X: the way u write that, its almost as if it is artist impression

4:40
DaveO: yes its the 127.2% extension to symmetry, often plays

4:40
Alby: no i didn’t rate conter and trend trade

4:40
C3X: overall nov was 79% weighted based on pips won and lost…

4:40
C3X: and unweighted at 54%

4:41
DaveO: OK

4:41
C3X: last week we lost 87 pips overall

4:41
C3X: we made nearly the same on the real fund as well

4:41
Alby: less i think

4:41
C3X: 79 pips lost

4:43
Alby: you lost 67 pips

4:43
C3X: yea 66 but I was counting couple of last week as weel

4:43
DaveO: @C3X, I did post the symmetry levels before price hit the zone, see above.

4:43
C3X: yes saw

4:43
C3X: u r pretty accurate

4:44
C3X: which is why I do check back and read ur comments

4:44
DaveO: forex not terribly precision

4:44
C3X: I count the number of trade by the date they close

4:44
C3X: so last week also had audusd and eurjpy which was entered on 18 nOV

4:45
C3X: hence the 82 lost

4:45
C3X: but closed on 21 nov…so they are part of last week

4:45
DaveO: understood

4:46
C3X: I have no idea what charts are telling but italian yields are gaining strength

4:46
DaveO: sends my eyes crazy if I try to check out a whole weeks results or whole month

4:46
DaveO: so I just trust you now

4:47
C3X: yea but we expect alby and others who have a little more time to let us know if we have made mistakes

4:47
C3X: we hate putting those perf sheet out

4:47
C3X: and that too on saturday at 6 am

4:47
DaveO: the younger ones very often can’t stand the pace though

4:48
C3X: love to have a cup of team and do some gardening but then made a committment so always there

4:48
DaveO: you need a gofer come tea boy

4:48
C3X: thats why am so interested in subscribing to willba if he does commit

4:48
C3X: yes there is an intern who tells me eur will burst

4:48
DaveO: to check the damned tables

4:49
C3X: need someone a little more humble and who can back his statement with research

4:49
C3X: before he opens his mount

4:49
C3X: mouth

4:49
DaveO: lol

4:50
C3X: maybe the coming crunch will humble a lot of them

4:50
DaveO: I used to run an apprenticeship scheme when I had my eng co

4:50
C3X: wall street pays are down 30%

4:50
C3X: so some of them will humble

4:50
DaveO: could tell you lots of stories about the youngsters

4:50
StAloyboy: Some say Eur$ decoupling from risk assets cuz of crazy future

4:52
DaveO: soon time to go get yer hamburgers and lower volume StA

4:52
StAloyboy: lol!

4:54
Alby: i have to go out

4:54
Alby: see you later

4:54
DaveO: wiat Alby

4:54
DaveO: wait

4:55
C3X: see you…

4:55
DaveO: @C3X. Alby might consider a job with you if it ever required to expand.

4:57
C3X: ha ha with Alby record am not sure Alby will ever join us

4:57
C3X: he is your student right? So obviously he has done well for himself

4:58
C3X: Willba is all ready to launch his own service

4:58
C3X: so hopefully we have done some things right in the last few months

4:58
DaveO: just a thought. No longer my student. Just a trading friend now

4:59
C3X: I still remember willba (inc u, mike and others) did stand by us when we were being insulted by couple of folks

4:59
C3X: so hopefully willba will do well having gleaned some stuff from here

4:59
DaveO: so might have some added value to you if you understand me and you need to delagate

4:59
C3X: Oh yes. I understand pretty fast.

5:10
DaveO: If I were asked for a reference it would be just 1 line. ” One the most honesy guys I have ever come across and humble with it”. How’s that for concise.

5:13
C3X: yes my interactions with him have been nice

5:13
C3X: we value your inputs

5:14
Comment From sponn
Hi again..

5:15
Comment From sponn
Are Last four trades stil valid ?

5:15
DaveO: ES still holding up in spite of breadth declining 180 issues and VOLD signalling 8% true trend day thus far. Breadth currently + 2370 issues

5:15
C3X: yes they are valid…@sponn I keep enabling you but you are changing something that is not allowing ur comments to come auto

5:15
sponn: Thx c3x for creating temporary account

5:16
C3X: have a strange feeling that auss may miss our entrt all together but if that .9980 level is so big as people say then a 100 pips fall from there shld be understandable

5:16
sponn: Hmm another ip ?

5:16
C3X: I dont know

5:16
C3X: but have u fully subscribed back?

5:16
sponn: Alos

5:16
C3X: or wait till tmrw

5:16
sponn: Yes

5:16
C3X: ok cool…but waht a day did u choose to go

5:16
C3X: wish u were there

5:16
sponn: But nit sure about username

5:17
DaveO: blimey sponn, get a grip man.

5:17
C3X: we are rarely successful in getting these counter…so even we were surprised that 3 went in a row

5:17
sponn: When I want to use sponn it tells me that it’s already taken

5:18
C3X: I think they will sort it out..so dont worry

5:18
DaveO: tyats because you used it before

5:18
C3X: does it not surprise that audusd is off 60 pips from that level which daveo mentioned earlier

5:19
C3X: so guess these sym levels are imp

5:19
sponn: So now I’m logged with temp account (login bart).. Maybe this is causing livechat problems

5:19
C3X: and we shld have kept our targets closer to that

5:20
DaveO: must admit paypal cards going out of date is a nuisance because no warning from paypal of course

5:21
DaveO: and dont forget to cancel your previous paypal profile or you will end up paying twice on seperate dates

5:21
DaveO: like 2 payments per month

5:22
sponn: It was my fault… I forgot to put some cash to my visa card…yeah Dave I know… I have got this situation a month ago

5:23
DaveO: and me

5:23
DaveO: because I was sent a new card with different number and exp date

5:25
DaveO: and paypal didnt have the sense to use the second card which was still current

5:26
DaveO: still, even at twice the cost I feel C3X is good value

5:26
C3X: good its all done….eurusd is paused and just sranding above key levels

5:27
DaveO: waiting for hamburgers to get digested

5:27
C3X: no one shld miss the fact that eurusd hs simply refused to play ball with risk

5:27
C3X: and it doesnt surprise me…unless italian yields fall below …we will not see much of a rally

5:27
C3X: italy is top 5 bond markets of the world

5:28
DaveO: ok

5:28
C3X: so its big market…and eurusd respects that

5:28
DaveO: flat now at small loss on the trade

5:29
C3X: it teased 1.34 and came back..wow

5:29
C3X: it breaks below 1.333 this cld be false

5:29
C3X: fake but lets see

5:29
C3X: we are in now

5:30
C3X: am expecting a rally in eurusd…but its based on nothing

5:30
DaveO: I shall re-enter if necessary

5:30
C3X: yields on italy not ready to climb down…cds on germany is elevated…bunds have tested support today which allowed risk…but eurusd is more of yield play

5:31
C3X: 1.3320 and we are not fully In

5:32
DaveO: pattern looking ominous to me now

5:32
C3X: Oh yes bad

5:33
C3X: this would be hurting a lot of people…..what happens if it attacks 1.3275

5:33
C3X: thats where stops are

5:33
C3X: what a turn around…..

5:34
C3X: but we are sticking around

5:35
DaveO: its not aligned to ES at mo as previously mentioned

5:36
DaveO: from a chartist perspective there’s a blinking great gap for the filling which would undo the entire rally

5:42
DaveO: 3296 test the bottom of MH wedge of old

5:47
C3X: am a great believer in gap closure but gaps can close in seconds or days or years

5:47
C3X: we missed a great short chance at audusd

5:47
C3X: .9970

5:47
C3X: given the evidence of that trend

5:47
C3X: line

5:48
C3X: and the aussie anyways runs before the risk party

5:49
DaveO: CL is doing the same darned thing

5:49
DaveO: but gold holding up

5:50
DaveO: and ES holding up

5:50
DaveO: so apart from vix making new day highs the risk on is still on

5:55
DaveO: and Dax and FTSE et al are near day highs
5:59
DaveO: bluwy crude, had nice profit and gave 90% back
6:01
DaveO: and again the high was just shy of my 70.7% target for TP2 so never locked in what was deserved
6:10
DaveO: still lunchtime low vol on ES

6:12
DaveO: Hovering at the C3X TP1 target level so chance to get flat for those losing confidence

6:14
DaveO: low vol on a ret normally denotes its only a short term ret but US lunchtime confuses the issue

6:16
DaveO: bid/ask delta still trending up with not a solitary red 3 min candle the entire day session

6:18
DaveO: can’t explain the VIX out of correlation

6:19
DaveO: not a perfect world today

6:20
DaveO: ES volume returning

6:21
DaveO: 1 min 20 MA tick volume now hooked up

6:22
DaveO: did you finish your lunch StA

6:29
DaveO: aussie tasting risk again, thinkin bout it

6:31
DaveO: cant be sure yet, might be in the eye of the beholder but try to remain objective

6:32
DaveO: wanting to see TP2 on C3X ES trade

6:33
DaveO: implications across the board except da bluwwy crude

6:38
DaveO: aussie need to break that daily trend resist line at 9980/90

6:39
DaveO: or else we go back down the tubes

6:44
DaveO: I miss our chief linesman to share the commentary

6:44
mustangrocky: Im no linesman but I’ll jump in here

6:44
DaveO: good

6:46
mustangrocky: im waiting to see if aud can break that trend line as well. Euro Usd below it as well

6:47
DaveO: yes

6:47
DaveO: thinkin the aud will lead

6:48
DaveO: and the ES

6:48
mustangrocky: OR…did usdchf lead? On the 4H, it broke the trend line

6:48
mustangrocky: take a look

6:50
DaveO: yes agree it did but also eyeballing the daily trend line drawn from 7066 low

6:51
DaveO: through the 8567 pivot low

6:52
DaveO: need to break that also

6:53
DaveO: I am seein NYSE breadth still declining

6:54
DaveO: and vix making new highs of day still

6:54
DaveO: cloudy picture

6:56
DaveO: If ES returns to TP 1 level again l I’m out

6:57
DaveO: cos pattern would suggest next downside beer stop at 1186

6:57
DaveO: flat

6:59
DaveO: done quite well today but with some dissapointments

7:00
DaveO: salvage what is left

7:00
DaveO: and be happy

7:04
DaveO: back in 25, Peace !

7:05
mustangrocky: see ya

7:52
DaveO: ES headin for 1186 or further downside to 1184

7:59
DaveO: 1 handle ES worth 10 pips forex imo

8:07
DaveO: -1400 neg ticks. serious #

8:08
mustangrocky: i closed my long usdcad to short usdchf..stupid

8:11
DaveO: reaction off 1184 but doubt it will hold

8:25
DaveO: ES nice vol divergence at the low, now what, more chip chop ?

8:25
mustangrocky: cash rally?

8:26
DaveO: maybe, all cash indices well over +2% on the day

8:26
DaveO: cant ignore that

8:27
DaveO: VOLD contunues to make new highs in spite of some chop

8:28
DaveO: I shall remain flat ES

8:29
DaveO: tick MA below zero line

8:31
DaveO: breadth trending down, vix makes new highs. It all points to Mr bear now with VOLD yet to hook down

8:34
DaveO: chances are VOLD will spike way down at the close denoting manipulation

8:46
DaveO: I like this one. FDP & Rösler reject eurobonds, German public rejects FDP, markets reject sovereign bonds, ECB rejects QE… We’re all rejected & doomed. 4 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply

8:50
DaveO: http://www.dowjones.com/products/djfxtrader/articles/EUCRISISROADMAPKeyMilestonesAheadNov28.asp

8:57
mustangrocky: rally

8:58
DaveO: yep we didnt have a bet did we

8:58
mustangrocky: no thats why I was right

8:59
DaveO: lol

9:01
DaveO: big volume came in

9:01
mustangrocky: wonder what that was all about

9:02
DaveO: manipulating weak longs out of it

9:03
mustangrocky: really? not weak shorts?

9:04
DaveO: no the move down I meant

9:04
mustangrocky: oh

9:04
DaveO: VOLD was right all along, as usual

9:06
DaveO: not reflected in forex however

9:12
DaveO: higher volume today on NYSE but lower volyme on ES

9:13
DaveO: just to complete the day of conflict

9:23
DaveO: so far as I can gather the IMF funding of ECB was a loada b/s

11:59
DaveO: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/28/us-imf-lagarde-idUSTRE7AR1ZC20111128
Tuesday November 29, 2011
12:00
DaveO: so now the paracite is tapping S.America
12:08
DaveO: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8921720/Europes-shrinking-money-supply-flashes-slump-warning.html

4:14
Comment From mustangrocky
maybe asia will be interesting
4:14
Comment From MikeHiggs
Evening, back from the German Language school. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-27/bond-dealers-see-fed-buying-545-billion-of-home-loan-debt-in-third-easing.html

Is this the rumor that is going to begin the eur rally to Dec 9 summit?

We know what started the last one in oct, reportedly an interview by Trichet talking about treaty changes.

Dow Jones reports that IMF is going to lend up to EUR 1 trillion to Italy to shore up the euro and also Italy finances.

The incredulity of the whole rumor is that why would IMF give that money to Italy to shore up the EUR? Rather will they not give the money to ECB or Germany if it is to shore up the EURO?

The International Monetary Fund could offer Italy between EUR400 billion and EUR600 billion in financial support to give Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti a window of 12 to 18 months to enact reforms sufficient to restore waning market confidence in Italy’s ability to repay its debt, Turin daily La Stampa reported Sunday, citing IMF sources.

The IMF “Italy package” would consist of loans at an interest rate of between 4% and 5%, compared with the 7% to 8% the country paid at its most recent bond auctions, the report says.

La Stampa reports that the worsening European debt crisis, which has increased pressure on French and Belgian bonds, and seen a German bund auction undersubcribed, is strengthening the conviction at the IMF that Italy is the nation that urgently needs support to avoid a breakup of the euro.

The IMF wants to give Monti another card to play if his reforms are insufficient to dispel financial speculation, the paper said.

Monti is expected to present his reforms on Dec. 5, Italian papers reported separately Sunday.

The size of any IMF bailout for Italy would be so large that it must be done in coordination with other insitutions, La Stampa said.

Germany has been against any broadening of the European Central Bank’s purchases of Spanish and Italian bonds on the open market to support prices. But German resistance to ECB bond-buying could fade if such funds were extended with oversight from the IMF, La Stampa reported.

Source: Dow Jones

We have been saying this over and over again. We will back the EU authorities to do a EU fiscal union rather than Obama to ever solve US deficit crisis. But the near term uncertainties will pull eurusd to near crisis level.

Now another main stream media house picks on these matters months and weeks after Capital3x had aired these views on FT and many other blogs.

WSJ Source

Euro-zone countries are weighing a new plan to accelerate the integration of their fiscal policies, people familiar with the matter said, as Europe’s leaders race to convince investors they can resolve the region’s debt crisis and keep the currency area from fracturing.

Full article at WSJ

By Olaf Gersemann
DIE WELT/Worldcrunch

BERLIN - We now have to rescue whatever is left to rescue of the euro, at any price. And as the crisis continues, one thing is abundantly clear: a decade ago, when the currency was introduced, we were way too gullible.

Here are 10 reason why the euro was a mistake. Some of them – superficially at least – seem fairly obvious. Some were aired, and discarded, in the various public and private debates that took place in the 1990s. Other aspects were simply overlooked at the outset, even by currency’s most ardent opponents.

1. No conflict resolution mechanism In its first decade, Europe’s economic integration was uniquely successful. At their summits, leaders divvied up profits. That dynamic changed with the euro crisis: now they had to share burdens — something no one was prepared for, either institutionally or mentally. This, in turn, has led to squabbling among nations at a level that hasn’t been seen since 1957, when the Rome Treaties were signed.

2. No rallying points With the exception of soccer and the Eurovision Song Contest, there’s nothing around which Europeans rally as a whole – no regional TV stations or newspapers, and certainly no common language. During the win-win period, this wasn’t much of a problem. But as soon as the euro crisis broke out, a bad-mouthing “us vs. them” attitude quickly took hold. Even if the crisis itself doesn’t tear the European Union apart, the basic rallying point problem remains.

3. Language barriers Why were institutions such as Germany’s central bank, or the EU Commission not made aware during the last decade of the extent of the problems in Greece and Portugal? Because experts depended on the Greek and Portuguese governments for whatever information they were getting. Not knowing the languages meant they couldn’t independently read Greek and other newspapers, which would have made the situation abundantly clear. This is an ongoing problem.

4. Trust Experiences so far are sobering. A case in point is the fudged figures on which Greece’s entry into the zone were based in the first place. And there are no signs presently of any behavior anywhere that would warrant greater trust.

5. Control It’s not just about the four big economies: Germany, France, Italy and Spain, which together represent three-fourths of the euro zone’s economic performance. The crisis has made it clear that even a country like Greece, which barely contributes 2% of the currency zone’s GDP, is “system relevant.” That means that with the possible exception of tiny Malta, any euro country has the potential to blow up the whole system. A related problem is shifting power – usually seen as German dominance, but it can also mean weaker members taking the others hostage.

6. Shared-value deficit Europe wouldn’t necessarily need many shared values to function as a free trade tone. But as a currency union, survival depends on shared economic and political values. Some northern European governments seriously thought the euro would bring a German-style “culture of stability” to southern European countries. But it’s become clear that France, Italy, Spain and Greece continue to perceive the European Central Bank as an opportunity. Seen objectively, that may not be wrong, but it contradicts the deeply-held German conviction forged out of negative experience that an independent central bank is the only guarantee against governments piling up debt that is then “inflated away” by printing more money.

7. The missing European mind Differences in mentality between nations would not pose a problem if at the very least there were people in national government and the joint institutions who had cast off national thinking. But there are no “true Europeans” either among politicians, technocrats or among the members of the supposedly independent European Central Bank.

8. Interest rates When the euro was first introduced, even skeptics thought the economic situations among currency union members would soon balance out. Not so, and that’s a problem because there’s only one key interest rate. It’s too high for some countries, too low for others. The results are unnecessarily long declines in economic activity and high rates of job loss on the one hand, and high inflation — and in some cases bubbles (think: real estate markets in Spain and Ireland) – on the other.

9. Lack of mobility People have to be mobile in a currency union – ready to move to wherever the good jobs are so that areas where jobs are plentiful balance areas where they aren’t. With time, Europeans are becoming more mobile, as the number of Spaniards migrating to Germany shows. But there’s still a long way to go.

10. No real will to enforce the rules Despite all the difficulties, the currency union could work if governments would exert “peer pressure” on each other. But the fathers of the currency union overestimated their own political caste. Greece, Italy, Germany – all have treated Maastricht Treaty rules like non-binding suggestions and no amount of EU Commission “Blue Letters” have done any good in changing that. None of the violators, in other words, have been punished.

 

Original Story in German

We have read all been reading quite bit of english press on what is happening around the world but it may opportune time to read about what is being reported in other languages and countries esp Germany.

• Schuldenkrise: Schröders Rezept für Europa steckt voller “Giftpillen” – Nachrichten Wirtschaft – WELT ONLINEDie Welt reports former German Chancellor Schroeder wants a United States of Europe to be able to compete with the US and Asia in the future. He believes that ECB iquidity and Eurobonds are part and parcel of that vision.
• Umfrage: Mehrheit der Deutschen lehnt Euro-Bonds ab – Deutschland – Politik – HandelsblattHandelsblatt reports 57 percent of Germans polled are against Eurobonds. Not only would this represent a transfer union, but it would also increase German interest rates. Is this a nationalistic response to crisis: yes? Remember, however, the transfers Germany has already made to bring eastern Germany into the fold over the last twenty years.
• Barroso fühlt sich von der Bundeskanzlerin verratenGerman daily Die Welt says Barroso and Merkel’s relationship is in tatters over her dismissive treatment of his Eurobond proposal, rejecting it even before it was presented.
• Nächster Wackelkandidat: Slowenien | kurier.atAccording to Austrian newspaper Kurier, Slovenia is the next place to watch for serious contagion with interest rates having risen above 7% for two weeks straight due to a doubling of government debt since the credit crisis began.
• Deutsche Front gegen Eurobonds bröckelt – Finanzmarktkrise – derStandard.at › WirtschaftAustrian daily Der Standard says that “the German front against Eurobonds is crumbling.” This is very much at odds with what you hear in the English-language press. “In the battle on ways out of the debt crisis, Eurobonds are being hotly debated, but weakens Berlin’s rejection.”
• Euro-Schuldenkrise: Anleger fliehen aus polnischem Zloty – Rohstoffe + Devisen – Finanzen – Handelsblatt“The Euro debt crisis has put the Polish Zloty under pressure. Blame is apparently on currency speculation. Poland fears crossing the permissible indebtedness mark of 55 percent of GDP.”