9:19
DaveO: Fib Queen could have a typing race with 3CX 
9:23
DaveO: and I think Mark often does free webinars for fibonaccitrader.com software vendors
9:25
MikeHiggs: SPX / DOW giving it all back.
9:25
DaveO: H ehelped to refine and develop their charting prog
9:26
DaveO: yep
9:27
MikeHiggs: FTSE ended today flat 0% Looks like US Eqs want to go the same way.
9:28
DaveO: yes but we might find this crap continues to friday announcements
9:28
DaveO: mkt completely irrational at mo
9:30
MikeHiggs: Agree, most likely, mayeb thurs a few traders might want to make some gambles on rumours. So it look slike next week will be the exciting one. Ive got some paint and a brush to keep me entertained for days like this.
9:30
DaveO: yes or scalping
9:32
MikeHiggs: My Attention span too wobbly for scalping at this time of year. I always loose interest in December.
9:34
DaveO: I think most the bigger players are sidelined this time around even though bonus year end
9:35
DaveO: they like to pump it all up into y/e
9:38
MikeHiggs: Plus its a shitty market to trade, and if you know your onions then you are going to wait until the market is tradeable, not trying paddle upstream. As you said at EMP Nos, best way is to Scalp n Golf.
9:45
DaveO: yep, my gold trade was cut off in its prime but took one unit out fortunately.
9:49
DaveO: Have a good evenin MH.
9:50
MikeHiggs: u 2 DvO Im off.
11:18
DaveO: Lets have another bail out fund. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/839e6eac-202e-11e1-9878-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fnbNr6Rv
11:34
DaveO: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013647/sp-has-no-choice-euroland-risks-bankruptcy-on-currrent-policies/
11:37
mustangrocky: “stealth default”. i like that. we’re stealthy with our debt
11:39
DaveO: http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-the-real-cure-for-the-euro-crisis-2011-12
11:42
DaveO: that last one specially for you mustang
11:42
mustangrocky: love it.
11:43
mustangrocky: still cant figure out how space bonds didnt get leaked yet
11:52
DaveO: I guess Geithner establishing special chicago exchange to handle for EFSF
Wednesday December 7, 2011
12:42
DaveO: OK time for kip and must dream of new terminology to learn. OSFSF and SPSM (sub prime space mortgage). Think I gottit.
12:43
mustangrocky: NICE!!
4:15
C3X: interesting links above
4:21
C3X: markets around the world are in no mans land…waiting for sat
4:21
C3X: aud gdp beats all estimates and therefore undoing all the stress due to rate cut
4:22
C3X: importantly CAD CB released a strong policy statement which is now ready to cushion any fall in risk
4:22
C3X: The Irish Times says Brussels is working on wording a special
procedure to amand EU Treaty application, in order to avoid a referendum
in Ireland or elsewhere.
4:23
C3X: USTs are narrowly mixed in Asian trade Weds, with the belly of the curve outperforming on the back of light Japanese name buying. With yields little changed from Tuesday Tokyo levels, some traders said they noted the first signs of flows slowing into year end, although the forthcoming EU summit was also keeping some investors sidelined. The yield on the 2Y was last at 0.25%, with the 5Y at 0.94%, the 10Y at 2.08% and the Bond at 3.10%.
4:27
C3X: Dagong Global Credit Rating, a state-backed ratings agency, said Wednesday it has cut its rating on Italy to BBB from A- with negative outlook, citing the country’s heavy debt burden and the negative impact on its economy.
4:33
C3X: AUSTRALIA DATA REACT: The Q3 GDP data is centred back in August (covers Jul, Aug and Sep) and given the fairly significant swings in the global environment since then is “fairly dated” says Deutsche Bank economist Adam Boyton. In a more benign backdrop private final demand growth of 6.7% y/y would likely call for rate hikes, not cuts, and therefore today’s data is best described as “then”, with the environment facing Australia “now” being a declining terms of trade and significant uncertainty around the global outlook. That falling terms of trade will hit nominal GDP growth, company profits and national incomes over H1-2012, and while the mining investment pipeline remains enormous the uncertain global environment will nonetheless see the marginal project deferred, delayed or cancelled, Boyton says.
4:38
C3X: UK Prime MinisterDavid Cameron has threatened to veto a new EU treaty unless it safeguards the City of London and the single market, the Independent says.
4:38
C3X: AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie govvies give back some of the previous session’s gains in Wednesday trade. The yield on the 2Y backed up 8 bps to stand at 3.25%, with the 3Y yield higher by 7 bps at 3.14%. The yield on the 10Y was also higher, up 2 bps at 3.935%. That left the 2/10-yr spread 6 bps flatter on overnight levels at 68.5 bps.
5:16
C3X: A total of E100 bn in deposits left French banks in September, the Telegraph writes, pressureed by precationary moves from “US money market funds and Asian investors.”
5:35
C3X: UK PRESS: The Times’ Shadow MPC voted for unchanged rates and QE levels
maintained at current levels, although two members voted for further easing. One economist saw recent economi deteriorationa nd called for an additional stg100 bn to be pumped into the economy. One further member, a former MPC member, voted for a 25 bps cut in the Bank Rate to a record low 0.25%.
05:31 07/12 GMT
ITALY: Overnight, China’s Dagong rating agency cut China’s A- rating to BBB, with the outlook at negative.
9:08
Comment From sponn
usd/cad stopped
9:08
Comment From Michael
gm. Just woke up to see cad trade stopped out. Should I reenter or is it risk on today?
9:08
C3X: USDCAD is stopped
9:08
C3X: and we are not reentering
9:08
C3X: but u can if it breaks above 1.011 again
9:09
C3X: GERMANY: Wires report comments from aGerman govt sources, saying
bringing ESM forward to 2012 would likely push German new net borrowing
beyond E26.1 bn (Rtrs)
9:09
C3X: ITALY DATA: October SA industrial output fell -0.9% m/m and -4.2% y/y in workday adjusted terms, down from -2.7% y/y in September. The y/y seasonally adjusted decline is the worst since December 2009, when the index posted a drop of -6.6%. The m/m decline is the second consecutive month that Italian industrial output drops and follows a m/m decline of -4.6 % in September.
–October unadjusted y/y output fell -4.1%, down from a -2.7% y/y decline in August.
9:36
C3X: UK DATA: Oct Manufacturing Plunge Ups Risk Of Q4 GDP Fall
–Oct manufacturing output -0.7% m/m; +0.3% y/y
–Oct industrial production -0.7% m/m; -1.7% y/y
9:36
C3X: cable did not react initially
9:36
C3X: Manufacturing output plunged on the month in October making it more likely that overall economic growth in Q4 will be negative. Output fell 0.7% m/m and was up 0.3% y/y well below the median forecast for -0.2% m/m and +1.5% y/y. Barring a sharp bounceback in output in the next two months, something survey evidence suggests won’t happen, output looks set to fall q/q in Q4. The wider measure of industrial production also fell by 0.7% m/m and was down 1.7% y/y, compared with the median for a 0.3% and 0.7% fall respectively. The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report forecast growth to flat-line over the next three quarters and this latest data add weight to this view and point to a possible worse outturn.
9:49
mustangrocky: usdcad creeping back up to the 100 ma 1.011
9:50
C3X: ITALY: Italy allots E8.29 bn in 2-day funds at an average 0.55%, the BOI
says, in line with target. The were bids totalling E11.5 bn from 6
bidders.
9:50
C3X: 10 year does not budge much
9:51
C3X: so all stable in bond markets as we wait for sat
10:01
C3X: EURO-DOLLAR: Trades around $1.3415 as market awaits the results from the ECB dollar auction. Support seen at $1.3400/1.3395, with stronger interest seen at $1.3385/80. Resistance remains at the earloier high at $1.3454, with stops above $1.3455, which if triggered to open a move toward the Dec5 high at $1.3487.
10:01
C3X: 10:01 07/12 GMT ECB: Allots $1.602bln in 7-day operation
- Allot $50.685bln in 84-day operation
10:02
C3X: eurusd no reaction to euro auction
10:03
C3X: ECB: ECB allots $50.7bln at 3-month dollar repo tender.
10:03
sgbdis: hi gm
10:03
sgbdis: is that EUR positive or negative?
10:04
C3X: now it does
10:04
C3X: 15 pips below
10:05
C3X: well we gave you the news before the market could react
10:05
C3X:
10:05
C3X: it shld not have a big impact
10:05
mustangrocky: yeah risk coming off since
10:10
mustangrocky: german debt sale
10:13
C3X: BUNDS: Dec Bunds gain sharply after strong take-up at ECB 3-month dollar tender at $50.685bln vs market median estimate of $10.0bln and highlights funding difficulties for banks. In addition, successful German 5-year Bobl auction also adding to bid in Dec Bunds, which is now up 15 ticks at 134.93.
10:17
C3X: ERMANY: Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany’s finance minister, overnight welcomed S&P’s statement on the possibility of downgrading certain EU countries’ triple A rating, saying tthis was the best possible wake up call in times of “economic sleepiness,” Le Monde said.
10:17
C3X: Germans are unbelievable
10:17
C3X: they would rather have the rest of europe go to the sinkers while they enjoy sub 2% on their 10 year
10:18
C3X: they welcomed S&P to downgrade rest of EU
10:19
mustangrocky: maybe he is looking at how well the us economy did after they were downgraded
10:19
C3X: Schaeuble is a dangerous man and keep an eye on this mentally deranged man
10:19
C3X:
10:20
mustangrocky: yeah he said that germany would not be for treaty changes and two hours later the headline was that germany would agree to treaty changes
10:21
mustangrocky: all snake-oil salesman on a sinking ship
10:22
mustangrocky: just like kyle bass said. dont believe anything they say. they will lie until the very last possible minute
10:27
C3X: keep ur eyes trained on these neo nazis and you will understand what I mean when I say that EUro is here to stay
10:27
C3X: the germans know that some folks are on to them but no one can stop what is coming
10:28
C3X: so in some ways euro creators will win the battle in short term/mediumt erm
10:28
C3X: germans wants to euro to go down..and they want rest of EU to suffer…but they also want the rest of bond markets to view them as the sole savior
10:30
mustangrocky: if they are downgraded, do you think it will have no effect on their bonds? like the US?
10:31
C3X: ITALY: Italy sells E740.5mln of 5.25% 2017 BTP via exchange auction. Offered bonds were:
– 4.00% Apr 2012 BTP
– 2.15% Sep 2014 BTPei
– Dec 2014 CCT
– Sep 2015 CCT.
10:31
C3X: who is downgraded?
10:31
mustangrocky: germany
10:31
C3X: Germany or rest of europe?
10:31
C3X: Germany will not be dowgraded
10:32
C3X: they are uber standards when it comes ot deficit
10:32
C3X: notches above UK and US
10:32
C3X: have you been Germany…? they are brilliantly efficient
10:33
C3X: They lost WW2 purely on luck..and bit of foolishness by Hitler…else Germany wld have steam rolled
10:34
C3X: had they built their freidnship and relationships with the countries they acquired as they walked to stalin homes, he would have taken Russsia down in 3 months…instead Hitler fought with the residents of the countries he acquired and hence they all turned against him
10:34
C3X: and hence had too many enemies by the time stalin decided to fight back…and then later US came in
10:35
C3X: so Germany has for over a century been most efficient country in the world
10:35
C3X: but they fail misrable in foreign relations
10:36
C3X: and thats where US-UK combine dominate
10:38
DaveO: Shall keep my eye on Schauballs
10:39
C3X: GERMANY: Source; Still no EMU-wide accord ahead of Summit
- Now more pessimistic on chance of a EU deal
- Small steps not enough to convince markets
- Need EMU deal if no EU deal possible
10:39
C3X: live stuff
10:40
C3X: and that was why eur reacted
10:40
C3X: germany says they will make sure summit if going to be a failure
10:40
C3X: actually if you can, try to get a list of the whole German cabinet
10:40
C3X: and over 50% have nazi card holders
10:40
C3X: are
10:41
mustangrocky: all salty and bitter
10:41
C3X: am sorry if germans here are hurting…but by now u know my bias against german govt. Nothing against the citizens
10:42
C3X: they are good people but unfortunately under the rule of a set of guys who are planning to dominate not just europe but eh plan is US,UK
10:43
C3X: Monti is already in place where ECB wants him
10:43
C3X: spain has a new government…but I do not know much about the new government
10:44
C3X: and UK politicians know the weight of what is coming their way
10:44
DaveO: are you Swiss @ C3X ?
10:44
C3X: GS already has a report out saying the government that will hurt most is sterling in 2012
10:44
C3X: exactly what I think….
10:44
C3X: cause euro will test parity and sterling will crash as well …but sterling will never come up
10:45
C3X: but euro will rise back as Fiscal union is implemented
10:45
C3X: well it depends how you define citizenship?
10:45
DaveO: and the usd ? presumably will rise in all of this
10:45
C3X: definetly swiss if you think spending 10 years
10:45
C3X: is enough
10:45
C3X:
10:46
mustangrocky: if not 10 years?
10:46
DaveO: K
10:46
C3X: yes Daev0 my views are similar…usd is waiting for a major short term pull up in 2012
10:46
C3X: but my serious doubts if USD can survive the coming carnage in Muni bonds
10:46
C3X: in 2012 in Oct
10:46
C3X: It is Greece 10 times
10:46
C3X: beginning Oct 2012
10:47
C3X: hopefully am wrong…
10:47
DaveO: and japan crisis looms
10:47
DaveO: that will complicate things
10:47
C3X: PORTUGAL T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: Sold E1.0bn vs target E1.0bn-E1.25bn
– E1.0bln of 3-month T-bill; avg yield 4.873% (4.895%), cover 2.0 (2.4)
10:47
mustangrocky: no wonder i dont sleep
10:47
C3X: eurusd is reacting sharply to dow jones rumor about germany saying No deal
10:48
C3X: Japan crisis?
10:48
DaveO: I slept like a baby last night after a large nightcap
10:50
mustangrocky: my heads not that big
10:50
mustangrocky: more like a medium
10:52
DaveO: Japan soveriegn debt is “a bug in search of a windshield” Just 1% increase in debt servicing will finish them once the debt has to be sold externally
10:53
C3X: yes
10:54
C3X: but Japan is a different economy
10:54
C3X: it is more healthy than Germany
10:54
C3X: unlike what you read on press
10:54
C3X: Japan is the world only Cash rich economy
10:54
C3X: 700 bn dollars is the cash that the Japanese exporters have on their bo0oks
10:54
C3X: this is what is invested into Japanese bond markets
10:55
C3X: so it is a beautiful sefl servicing cash flow economy
10:55
C3X: unlike US where more debt is taken to show new GDP
10:55
C3X: Japan exporters and gets cash which is re invested
10:55
C3X: very very different economy
10:55
C3X: so Japan has no crisis at ALL
10:55
DaveO: I dont believe that both Mauldin and Kyle could be wrong on this
10:55
C3X: am sometimes at a loss when media like telegraph reports about debt/gbp ratio
10:56
C3X: that is not a metric to look at for Japan
10:56
DaveO: Mauldin been warning about it for 4 yrs
10:56
C3X: well you should email mauldin and ask him specifically to count the cash lying on the books of Japan corporates
10:56
C3X: Let him do some home work
10:56
DaveO: and Kyle same story
10:57
C3X: It is a tough exercise but we did it
10:57
C3X: while at my previous firm
10:57
C3X: we will always give you different view…no one on internet has spoken about the cash machine of Japanese corporates
10:57
C3X: who do you think is buying Yen
10:57
C3X: ?
10:58
C3X: if Japan was about to fall where do you think USD/YEn shld be
10:58
C3X: where shld JGB yield be
10:58
DaveO: How about if japan corporates desert the sinking ship. Invest abroard
10:58
C3X: Bond markets are far more accurate than Mauldin I suppose
10:58
C3X: that is a possibility
10:58
C3X: yes there am with you
10:58
C3X: but they have never done that
10:58
C3X: 1990 -2011 has been one strong rise for yen
10:58
C3X: 350 odd to 77
10:59
C3X: intermediate volatility but it is one of the strongest rises ever
10:59
C3X: JGBs are so low that you cannot stop but wonder who is buying Japanese bonds
10:59
DaveO: things can change very suddenly
10:59
C3X: but they are the hottest property in the world today
10:59
C3X: asset
10:59
C3X: yes things can change
11:00
C3X: if China slows Japan and australia will siffer first
11:00
DaveO: gheir bonds have sold almost entirely internally
11:00
C3X: and corporates in Japan will take a hit
11:00
C3X: and that is when they are in trouble
11:00
C3X: internally = corporates
11:00
DaveO: japan savers are exhausted now
11:00
C3X: toyota and hondas
11:00
C3X: not savers
11:01
DaveO: I will ask Mauldin
11:01
C3X: well when usdcyen hits 100 again, i will look at Japan
11:01
DaveO:
11:01
C3X: these savers cannot buy Jpaan for 20 years
11:01
C3X: its all exporters
11:01
C3X: there is very very good report from CLSA on japan
11:01
MikeHiggs: Troubled times ahead.
11:01
C3X: and they recount how Japan is the only cash cow in the world
11:02
C3X: brilliant contrarian
11:02
C3X: they wrote the report when usdyen wqas 120
11:02
DaveO: He never beenm wrong yet in the 8 yrs I been following him
11:02
C3X: and so has AEP been
11:02
C3X:
11:02
C3X: the fact is every one has been right on the crisis
11:02
DaveO: hehe
11:02
C3X: some got publicity
11:02
C3X: like roubin
11:03
C3X: while others were quietly talking over beer “see i told you”
11:03
mustangrocky: i was talking over beer
11:03
C3X: so 2008 was easy…so has the rally after that…euro crisis was easy as well
11:03
C3X:
11:03
C3X: me too
11:03
DaveO: I think Mauldin was first onto the sub prime
11:04
C3X: would not bet on it ….easy to check …see when he first reported and see the first junk yield rise
11:04
C3X: well if he said in 2004 and then crisis happened in 2008, he is wrong
11:04
C3X: u cant get timing wrong
11:04
C3X: our business is all about stops which is about timing
11:05
DaveO: 2007 every man and his dog became suddenly right
11:05
C3X: so if mauldin was short was 8 years ? then I will be worried
11:05
C3X: but he is brilliantly clear in his mind on what he wants to present
11:05
C3X: so he is good…but about timing, will reserve judgement
11:06
DaveO: way before the bond mkts I think
11:06
C3X: and I dont know what he thinks of Japan…but if think japan is about to fold, then will dis agree
11:06
C3X: how before? 2004 is 8 years from now…
11:07
C3X: if he was short sub prime from 2004, seee how much he lost in the best years of sub prime…2004-2007
11:07
DaveO: bond mkts lag Mauldin by yrs
11:07
C3X:
11:07
DaveO: no he not a trader
11:07
C3X: would you put him in the same league as roubini
11:07
C3X: ?
11:07
DaveO: but Kyle trades his analysis
11:07
C3X: cause roubini is the dumbest guy who from 2006 was on CNC
11:08
C3X: TALKING ABOUT HOW THE WORLD WAS falling
11:08
C3X: but they still think he is a god
11:08
C3X: but the fact is he got it for 24 months all wrong
11:08
C3X: wrong
11:08
C3X: but am assuming mauldin was not short from 2004
11:08
C3X: if he did get his timing right, Mauldin is smart
11:08
C3X: else nothing separates him from AEP
11:09
DaveO: I am talking about pre warnings, not calling exact timings
11:09
C3X: OK
11:09
C3X: ah ok
11:09
C3X: I need to read more mauldin…till now he is impressibe
11:09
C3X: impressive
11:09
DaveO: he doesnt call timing and nor does Kyle
11:10
C3X: thats the problem isnt it
11:10
C3X: even harvard economy profs can say things will happen
11:10
C3X: but if you can get timing, then how will traders like us use him
11:10
C3X: cant
11:10
DaveO: you can check Mauldins archives which go way back. Cant say more than that.
11:10
C3X: yea
11:11
C3X: he is good from the time I have read him
11:11
C3X: 1 year
11:11
C3X: Kyle I have not read
11:11
C3X: unless its different , will not read
11:11
DaveO: check back 8 yrs and move forward from there. If you have lots of time on your hands
11:11
C3X: October real sa industrial output +0.8% m/m
11:12
C3X: Germany October ind output -1.2% vs 3q avg, 3q +1.7% q/q, 2q +1.5%
– Germany October real sa manufacturing output +0.8% m/m
– Germany September mfg output revised to -2.8% m/m (-3.0%)
11:12
C3X: — Germany October mfg output -1.3% vs 3q avg, 3q +2.1% q/q, 2q +2.3%
– Germany October ind output 3mma (August-October:July-September) -0.8%
– Germany October basic goods output -0.4% m/m, September -2.7% (-2.8%)
– Germany October capital goods output +2.2% m/m, September -4.5%
(-4.7%)
– Germany October consumer durables +2.5% m/m, September -0.2% (-0.9%)
– Germany October consumer non-durables -0.5% m/m, September +1.6%
– Germany October energy goods output +1.1% m/m
– Germany October construction output +0.4% m/m
11:12
C3X: usdchf is imp and keep a watch on this
11:12
C3X: .9320/30 is imp
11:13
C3X: if it does not break convincigly, then there can a substantial selling
11:13
C3X: which also means SP is on its way above 1300
11:14
C3X: I respect mauldin…but obvioulsy u have read him more than me and your views are similar to mine…he is a must read
11:14
C3X: imo “but he is not exactly a trader guide” so he is a good analysis guy
11:15
C3X: lots buy stop orders at .9330
11:16
DaveO: Yes, purely advanced analysis. I dont have the same respect for bond mkts as you do, only for the here and now. In longer timeframes can be incredibly dumb.
11:19
C3X: ha ha
11:20
C3X: will not disagree
11:20
C3X: but bond markets is why we live
11:20
C3X: or rather how we live
11:20
C3X: take bond makrets out and you will rampant poverty
11:20
C3X: across
11:20
C3X: why do you think US can still afford what it does today
11:20
C3X:
11:21
DaveO: sure
11:21
C3X: so they are dumb to give money to an economy which is only recyling debt
11:21
C3X: you are right
11:21
mustangrocky: recycling is good. go green
11:21
C3X: if bond market could understand better, will eurusd be susatining 1.34?
11:22
C3X: it shld have fallen like a rock
11:22
DaveO: caused of enormous problems now which world will do well to resolve and I have low confidence in that
11:22
C3X: but bond managers are still giving money to these clowns
11:22
C3X: so in some ways these managers are all dumb
11:22
DaveO: yes
11:22
C3X: but our asset and markets still drive off these markets
11:23
C3X: hey by the way….if you get a chance watch the move called margin call
11:23
C3X: kevin sapcey
11:23
C3X: spacey
11:23
C3X: brilliant work
11:23
C3X: GS story of 2008
11:24
DaveO: as traders we are are in the here and now and we trade the immediate trends however dumb. As long term analysts we look ahead. Big difference between the two
11:24
C3X: yes
11:25
DaveO: So japan might have 3 or 4 yrs yet. No way of calling exact timing
11:27
C3X: agree
11:27
DaveO: 2000 was the end of bull mkt in stocks. Look how they rallied through to 2007 in bear mkt rally
11:28
C3X: Summary: Spot gold prices are trading slightly softer Wednesday, after initially breaking higher at the tail end of the Asian session. Spot Gold look set to break out of its tight range around an hour before the London stock market opening, but prices have since reversed. Gold and Silver prices began to drift slightly higher, as the US dollar began to ease in the FX market. EUR/USD, closely watched by some in relation to gold, edged its way up to an intra-day high of 1.3454 around GMT0710. Prices then began to fall away quite sharply, after the ECB announced a strong take-up at ECB 3-month dollar tender at $50.685bln vs the market expectations of $10.0bln. The strong take-up highlighted the funding
difficulties facing Europe’s much troubled banks, and set the Euro firmly on the back foot in the FX market. This, in turn, sent gold prices lower to around $1725.70, before a brief pause saw further declines to an intra-day low of $1723.57. The US dollar remains reasonably stable in the FX market, especially against the Euro, which may well cap spot gold prices for the remainder of today’s session.
11:28
C3X: very low volumes…typical dec
11:28
C3X: never easy to m ake momey
11:28
C3X: u mig
ht as well take a vacation
11:29
C3X: by the way I never said bond markets are the smartest…I just said yields drive FX in medium term
11:29
C3X: so the whole market can be dumb and thats why smart people make more money than others
11:29
C3X:
11:29
DaveO: yes understood !
11:30
C3X: will join you in some time…
11:32
DaveO: Only have to look at peformance of vast majority of pension funds to see how dumb. They struggle to even cover inflation after commissions and costs
11:32
DaveO: no real growth
11:38
DaveO: As an ex engineer I have great respect and admiration for germany peoples, very hard working nation, in many ways a good example to rest of the world. The politics is a different matter.
11:40
DaveO: But trying to merge cultures has been a disaster imo, and predictably so.
12:10
DaveO: I shall have to desist in debating longer term macro analysis as it has no bearing on the here and now and confuses C3X immediate perspectives
12:10
mustangrocky: all good daveo
12:13
DaveO: Just the fact that Kyle managed to profit from his intermediate to longer term anaysis which interested me whereas Mauldin has never been a trader and always warns against taking his perspectives for trading the immedaite timeframes.
12:14
mustangrocky: yeah kyle has done alright
12:15
DaveO: Also interested me that Kyle and Mauldin are on the same page
12:17
DaveO: Roubini would be similar camp. I havent followed him closely but if he predicted the sub prime debacle as late as 2006 he was lagging behind the curve
12:20
DaveO: btw, I suggested yesterday that eu might hit 1.3440. The symmetry was in fact at 1.3455
12:20
mustangrocky: nice
12:20
mustangrocky: wahts the symmetry today?
12:34
Comment From MikeHiggs
GOLD. D1 Forming a lovely Golden Triangle and yesterdays low open and then rise were psotive, I favour a bullish breakout of this pattern in Gold, MA’s are confluent. 20dma 1731.9, 50dma 1704.9, 100dma 1728.0 Also 21wma ia at 1725.2. Price now o
12:35
MikeHiggs: Gold futures numbers may differ. Pattern wont.
12:52
mustangrocky: cameron urges full ecb support
12:52
mustangrocky: shocker
12:53
mustangrocky: geithner urges full support of outer space bonds
12:54
MikeHiggs: Space Aliens said to be interested in buying EU debt/bonds
12:55
mustangrocky: picture a new subscriber coming into the room and reading those last two posts
12:55
DaveO: no sym today yet until pattern permits projections but the implications could be new lows below 1.3332. Would need to break the trend support first at 3355 ish
12:56
MikeHiggs: Any new subs would do well to read back through recent transcripts.
12:57
DaveO: OSFSF yields down
12:58
DaveO: SPSM interest growing
12:58
mustangrocky: RSK ON!
12:59
mustangrocky: RISK
1:28
C3X: ok back
1:28
C3X: DaveO dont worry we dont get easily confused
1:28
C3X: we are either right or wrong
1:28
C3X: no place for confusion
1:29
C3X: will happily say we are wrong when we are
1:29
C3X: have enabled three more subs for open comments
1:29
C3X: stun our german friend is free
1:29
C3X: to put his comments
1:30
C3X: US DATA: The Chicago Fed’s Financial Conditions Index improved to -0.08
in the week end Dec 2 versus -0.05 in the prior week.
1:30
C3X: US DATA: MBA refis +15.3% and the purchase index was +8.3%, making the Mtg Bankers Assoc. +12.8% adjusted in the Dec 2 wk. The 4-wk mtg mkt index moving ave -3.20%. The latest ave 30-yr fixed conforming mtg rate was down to 4.18% with refis 76.0% of total applications.
1:31
C3X: EUR/USD, closely watched by some in relation to gold, edged its way up to an intra-day high of 1.3454 around GMT0710. Prices then began to fall away quite sharply, after the ECB announced a strong take-up at ECB 3-month dollar tender at $50.685bln vs the market expectations of $10.0bln. The strong take-up highlighted the funding difficulties facing Europe’s much troubled banks, and set the Euro firmly on the back foot in the FX market. This, in turn, sent gold prices lower to around $1725.70, before a brief pause saw further declines to an intra-day low of $1723.57. The US dollar remains reasonably stable in the FX market, especially against the Euro, which may well cap spot gold prices for the remainder of today’s session
1:32
C3X: Mike u make a compelling case for gold
1:32
C3X: I must agree that upward triangles mostly breakout up
1:34
Comment From stun
I agree Dave0 about german people. Hardworking and focussed
1:35
stun: but C3X am still not able to see how EUR will crash. So many shorts waiting on COT data. Does not contrarian play suggest otherwise?
1:35
C3X: @stun..I dont dispute that
1:36
C3X: that is throwing a spanner on our analysis. Would have liked some to cover when it moved to 1.42
1:37
MikeHiggs: USDCAD gaining traction off support.
1:38
nikomoto: I like the real debate and everyone seems to have a different view here. Nice to see different minds working here. My private conversation with C3X has greatly helped me to understand what is being offered here.
1:39
nikomoto: but @C3X i must say that your Japanese data is correct on who is buying the cash.But I will back Mauldin on the coming Japanese crisis.
1:40
nikomoto: all our savings is locked up. We have no where else to place the savings. Banks then go and invest it into bonds. If we had easier way, will take all the money out and invest into china
1:41
C3X: Seeing some whiplash for trade to $1.3385 as 8.35 item is superseded by headlines on another wire saying that ECB may loosen collateral requirements on loans, among some other steps.
1:41
C3X: GERMANY: Govt spox; Confirms, no joint EFSF-ESM firepower – No deal on IMF increase at EU Summit
1:42
stun: So how was your trip to Berlin?
1:46
stun: usdcad looks strong now, but this is one trade we should not touch for the time being
1:46
stun: Canada CB did not reduce rates
1:51
C3X: @Stun 1.01 is an imp level and not closed below 100 dma from aug
1:51
C3X: so higher prob of bouncing off here
1:52
stun: ok. But if am not wrong, the policy seem to suggest there was strong growth expected?
1:52
stun: in which case, CAD should perform well?
1:54
stun: Do you have a view on EURCAD? Weak fx to a strong fx as per your statements
1:55
nikomoto: I have bought yen from 90 till 77 through an ETF. But I think it is time get out
1:55
C3X: @stun I dont have a view on eurcad
1:55
C3X: you might have realised that we normally focus on majors
2:00
DaveO: usdcad kissed my 100dma and burnt its fingers
2:01
DaveO: skould I say burnt its lips.
2:01
C3X: I still believe CAD outperformance should stop here as we have seen last 3 times from aug
2:01
C3X: obviously if we see a close belo .1008, the risk off trade is off the table
2:02
C3X: no doubt cad has outperformed after yesterday
2:02
C3X: but I think given rest of market it is temprorary
2:02
C3X: I really would like to take eurusd to 1.329 as target but will close it in the current range
2:03
C3X: just too many trades
2:03
C3X: more upside to be made in usdcad
2:03
C3X: to me usdchf is imp here
2:04
C3X: it is holding under the dam…floodgates will open if those levels are taken
2:04
C3X: and the reported dollar buying after that will crucify most of risk currencies
2:04
DaveO: yep
2:05
DaveO: eurusd has tested 60 min trend support line twice
2:06
DaveO: within triangle formation on H.4
2:07
C3X: eurjpy is another trade is cloing in on targets
2:11
DaveO: eurjpy slightly broken the same trend support line
2:12
DaveO: feeling like freefall at any mo
2:15
stun: am in eurjpy trade. What is your extended target if it falls through gven target?
2:16
stun: secondly do you close the trade and then get in again if it takes all targets or do you wait for c3x to put a new trade
2:16
DaveO: 103.5 is C3X TP2
2:18
DaveO: its not fair for me to post my targets to override C3X targets because always a risk I am wrong
2:20
stun: Yes. I personally wait for C3X to give me new trades but sometimes I feel they miss on simple opportunities.
2:20
DaveO: but comparing eurjpy pattern to eurusd the low at 103.62 is likely to be taken out
2:20
stun: like EURUSD to me looks set for more downside but they seem to close it with no updates on new trades
2:21
stun: so while I agree with them on restricting to fewer trades, but Dec looks very dry to me by their standards so they should increase their trades.
2:22
stun: and eurjpy and gbpjpy seem to be two trades where they have strong meat in the trade so may be extend targets?
2:22
DaveO: C3X are not perfect, who is ?
2:23
mustangrocky: ahem
2:23
mustangrocky: clearing my throat
2:23
stun: not critcising. Just saying given the latest trend breaks, may be should we relook at targets
2:24
DaveO: also they have a fund record to preserve for the y/e now. You are free to take your own trades
2:24
stun: @C3X have you closed eurusd? or planning to extend it. You initially had a target of 13290 so just checking if that is still possible
2:24
stun: I agree DaveO
2:25
C3X: closed. had typed above…see more upside usdcad. also if usdcad closes below 100 dma, risk ON trade may be back here
2:25
C3X: and eurusd could easily rocket back to 1.35
2:25
C3X: so keep an eye on everything
2:26
C3X: I think u mentioned that short eur is not right given so many shorts on COT
2:26
C3X: so arent you contradicting urself if you want to take the danger of extending eur shorts?
2:26
C3X: just debating
2:27
mustangrocky: yeah but keep in mind im long eur usd here w tight stop so for that reason alone eurusd will tank from here
2:27
C3X: ha ha
2:27
C3X: I will strongly suggest to start de risking as we appraoch summit
2:27
C3X: maybe one trade or so
2:28
stun: ok. closed the trade.
2:30
C3X: ok I did not ask you to close. We have different parameters to close and it may not be the best method
2:31
DaveO: it made sense to take profits at or slightly above the trend support
2:31
stun: the support is at 1.3350. if it breaks, we can re short this imo
2:31
stun: correct ?
2:32
DaveO: mustang has balls taking a long there
2:32
C3X: depends stun on what your aim is. If you made 100 pips in the trade, why do you want to stretch your luck.
2:32
C3X: but there is downside for euro
2:32
C3X: if that answers your question
2:33
C3X: but it will be volatile
2:33
C3X: 1.3310 is ON
2:33
C3X: but as I said this we are closing on the year. and dec is where low volumes happen and sometimes rationality and patterns can get devalidated
2:34
C3X: it is a horrifying month for traders who look at intermarket
2:34
C3X: I expect 1220 and then close the year at 1260./
2:34
C3X: how is that for volatility
2:35
C3X: Spikes up to $1.5671 as rate reacts to fresh selling in euro-sterling, which has taken the cross below Tuesday’s low at stg0.8538. However, rally quickly loses momentum with rate trading back around $1.5655.
2:35
C3X: was talking of cable
2:35
C3X: have been trying to give you live news as often as possible
2:35
C3X: stun would you rather look at aud than eur?
2:35
C3X: for a short
2:36
DaveO: 102.95 is on for eurjpy for EW theory but risk always prevails, could be wrong
2:36
C3X: stun more targets for you…all targets come with risk
2:36
C3X: disclaimers
2:39
DaveO: @stun if you in a trade approaching trend S&R’s always need to respect for profit taking
2:39
DaveO: so depends whether you playing one unit or multi unit positions
2:40
stun: multi unit
2:40
DaveO: and depends if you can get yourself out of trouble quickly when things go wrong
2:40
C3X: I always prefer to take trade off the table and then re eneter
2:40
DaveO: agree
2:40
DaveO: particularly for running this service
2:40
C3X: with a tighter stop
2:41
C3X: secondly fading is not a the best strategy if you are not good at it…dont even try it
2:41
C3X: we are not good at it and you have seen us losing money on it
2:41
C3X: but we only try it when we have a some cushion to lose
2:42
DaveO: multi unit is you might enter with 3 lots and take one lot off the table at logical target levels
2:42
C3X: right now we are only trending
2:42
C3X: and months like dec are never trends …just volatile mix of ranges
2:42
C3X: I agree on multi lot strategy
2:42
C3X: and take some off on levels
2:43
C3X: and tighten stops
2:43
DaveO: yes
2:43
C3X: if we start telling you this, you will get 20 emails a day
2:43
C3X: so we do all this sometimes without giving out everything on sample sheet
2:43
DaveO: impractical
2:43
C3X: and expect you to have exit strategies
2:44
C3X: @Stun hope it makes sense and from what I understand you are not exactly a new trader
2:44
C3X: u thr
2:45
DaveO: we talkin to ourselves
2:45
stun: yes am here
2:46
stun: I trade multi lots but I am doing exactly what the sheet tells me
2:46
MikeHiggs: Link for earlier gold chart http://chart.ly/e94arrg
2:47
stun: and secondly I echo your feeling on fading. Not right strat.
2:47
DaveO: in that case you can consider TR1 and TR2 a trade for 2 units
2:47
stun: Have traded your calls constantly like a copy cat without missing even one. My time is similar to your time lines, so easier to follow you.
2:47
stun: but it takes a lot of time to follow you
2:48
DaveO: no kiddin
2:48
stun: not in a bad way but once I am here on this room, I get little time do anything else
2:48
stun: but have enough money to pay you guys for many months so keep it going. Dec does not look good as of now
2:48
DaveO: full time job, are you complaining ?
2:49
stun: @Daveo No complains.
2:49
DaveO: full time trader is 16 hrs not 8 hrs
2:50
DaveO: C3X go a step further at 18 hrs
2:50
stun: Germans dont exactly complain but we are extremely focussed on efficiency. We know when we see efficient people and C3X has done well till now.
2:50
DaveO: we like it or lump it
2:50
stun: I agree
2:50
stun: did they say they are swiss?
2:50
DaveO: take it or leave it
2:51
stun: I dont associate too many smart traders from swissies
2:51
stun: they could be an exception
2:52
DaveO: I dont think countries have anything to do with smart or dumb traders
2:52
stun: sorry agree. but culture and background does have a role.
2:53
C3X: that gold chart is brilliant.
2:53
DaveO: we all have the same design of brain, god help us
2:54
stun: I dont trade charts
2:54
stun: you mentioned triangles and rectangles but they dont make any sense
2:54
DaveO: dumb left hemi and right hemi the world is your oyster
2:55
C3X: @stun how do you trade then. you trading yields or macro or news…everyone has a style
2:55
DaveO: so id you trade just from your left hemi you are doomed
2:55
C3X: imp to know your strength
2:55
Comment From MikeHiggs
USDCAD 15m chart, after breaking support pair seems to finding traction. Might be just a Flag or possible the beginning of a measured rise 1.0175, even though not parralel. ALternatively if price can mirror the rally through 5/6th Dec, then a taget of
2:56
stun: not exactly. I look at asia then look at europe and mostly trade news to be fair. that is before I found your trade sheet. Then I started to do more reseaarch on all my trades
2:56
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/gm8wlkp
2:57
MikeHiggs: As you can guess, I am a pattern & chart trader. Each to their own, many ways to skin a cat.
2:57
stun: no one is right all the time. sometimes I do very well trading purely news.
2:58
stun: and when I am wrong, just gointo my shell and cant talk to people. Really cross with myself
2:58
C3X: well you seem to be news trader, then make sure you have sub second latency news at your finger tip
2:58
DaveO: nothing wrong with new trading, most effcient form of profit versus screen time ratio
2:58
C3X: and you should focus on playing 40-50 pip market rather than 100 pip play
2:59
MikeHiggs: But only if the chart/patterns fit with the Fundemantals and TREND or pivots/reversals. And what DvO says )) HA HA
2:59
DaveO: 25 pip moves with 5 full lots
2:59
C3X: trading news needs better infrastructure etc…u can tplay news over a public internet
2:59
C3X: the delay will kill you
2:59
C3X: that is my view…but your call
3:00
DaveO: nah, you trade after the spike
3:00
C3X: do you subscribe to any news flows like RTRS etc
3:00
C3X: that is one way
3:00
C3X: am just trying to help with your strat…I dont trade news. Am not in the market with day traders
3:00
DaveO: but this service is not for news trader as such
3:02
C3X: yes
3:02
C3X: you may find us missing during imp macro news release
3:02
C3X:
3:02
C3X: eurgbp is making eursd look bad
3:03
C3X: major break in eurusd coming up
3:04
stun: agree. Am not news trading any more. Just said prev startegy. Now I dont get time other than sit silently in this room
3:04
stun: good learning.
3:04
stun: am sorry if I offended you. Just that we are a little less sophisticated than the english
3:05
DaveO: not offended at all, far from it
3:05
stun: we get misunderstood a lot of times but echoing your words, Germany still commands bond market respect
3:05
stun: sorry C3X words on Germany
3:08
DaveO: I know very profitable news trader who trades 3 days each week, selects his news events to find good liquidity. His screen time versus mine is about 12 hrs/80 hrs.
3:08
DaveO: I work while he plays golf and playyys. Who is the smart one of us both ?
3:09
stun: AMAZING
3:09
DaveO: But methodology is directly ralated to temperament of individual trader
3:10
DaveO: no one size fits all
3:10
stun: agree. who is this guy
3:11
DaveO: W.Coast USA
3:11
DaveO: does it matter, he could be in Russia
3:17
DaveO: stun see if you can buy early edition of Trading Chaos by Bill Williams (phd psychology)
3:18
mustangrocky: does phd matter?
3:18
DaveO: many many books available on trading psychology but that one is a good starting point and explains many things
3:19
DaveO: mustang it only matters that he is a trader after being a practicing shrink
3:21
DaveO: I read the book in 1998 and still remember many quotes. It had a profound effect upon my trdaing and my life in general
3:22
DaveO: “You have to want what the market wants” etc etc etc
3:23
DaveO: takes some understanding
3:27
mustangrocky: i want usdcad to hit c3x targets. how’s that?
3:28
DaveO:
3:39
C3X: CABLE: UK clearer cited by most now for the drive higher in cable, the rate punching up to highs of $1.5726 on 1500GMT fix/M&A related buys. Mix of amounts suggested between stg2.5-3.0bln transacted in the move. Rate slips back below the figure post fix, currently around $1.5690.
3:40
C3X: That is amazing quote
3:40
C3X: and @mustangrocky u r not far behind in quotes
3:41
mustangrocky: nice
4:19
sponn: is eur/usd closed ?
4:36
Comment From MikeHiggs
TLT lovely wedge pattern formed in the Daily TLT, a breakdown from here to 110 as predicted,(blue arrow), SPX should then be clear to rally to 1320 area (black arrow)
4:37
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/qqifrba Also note the 50dma at 116.96 as support to be broken.
4:52
mustangrocky: there are still gaps in eurousd and audusd back from 11/25. wonder if those will come into play with all the volatility coming days
4:58
DaveO: would not be good for your long position right now
5:00
mustangrocky: that would be about a 145 pip move on euro and a 400+ pip move on aud
5:03
DaveO: sponn, I hope you have noticed how the various trend support lines held the euro today, you say you not a chartist but even fundamental players watch a few technical levels.
5:03
mustangrocky: think im closing that long position anyways. not cuz of gap but just to be out before all the crap
5:04
DaveO: nice poetry
5:04
mustangrocky: i have a way with words
5:04
DaveO: I have noticed
5:06
DaveO: AL gets riled when I call him fundamental trader. I like to wind him up.
5:07
sponn: so eur/usd was closed with profit right ?
5:08
sponn: I’m asking because it’s still open at tradesheet
5:08
mustangrocky: usdcad also has a gap from 11/25 at around 1.0460
5:09
DaveO: sponn if the eurusd goes back to stop the trade will deemed to have closed at first TP
5:10
sponn: ohh I see
5:10
sponn: nice way of making a lot of pips a month…
5:11
sponn: last time usd/cad was closed at sl but not for c3x…
5:11
DaveO: kinda jokin but the trade sheet updating lagging badly behind recently
5:12
DaveO: you could offer your services as chief sheet updater. A German would be highly efficient
5:14
sponn: that’s way I was asking you how are you doing with c3x…
5:14
sponn: they are amking 2000-3000 k of pips/month
5:14
sponn: when I’m losing money…
5:15
sponn: because bad trades are always the same for me
5:15
mustangrocky: i know gaps dont always have to be filled but 3 major currency crosses makes it interesting. anyone else have a thought on those gaps for eurusd, audusd and usdcad?
5:15
sponn: but winning no…
5:17
DaveO: mustang I expect them to be filled this month but a question of when.
5:17
sponn: maybe they way to do is to take trades with the worse price from tradesheet but then r/r ratio is not so good
5:18
DaveO: sponn, did you say you mimmick ALL trades ?
5:18
sponn: I was trying to.
5:18
mustangrocky: interesting daveo
5:18
sponn: a month or two ago
5:18
sponn: but like I’ve said
5:19
sponn: c3x is making toon of pips when I was loosing
5:19
sponn: so now I’m trying to take only some
5:19
sponn: but like with eur/usd
5:19
sponn: now
5:19
sponn: I have Tp at 1.3345
5:19
sponn: and the price was 1.3351
5:19
sponn: now we have reversal
5:20
sponn: but c3x probalby show that they closed this trade for profit
5:20
sponn: not sure about mine trade
5:20
sponn: maybe it will be a loss or win… who knows
5:20
DaveO: you said you closed it
5:21
sponn: nope
5:21
DaveO: most C3X trades are closed at the first TP
5:21
sponn: ok I will try with first tp then…
5:21
sponn: and will see
5:22
DaveO: 1.3360 in this example
5:22
DaveO: just above the trend support line
5:24
DaveO: they shoiuld show 70 pip profit
5:25
sponn: yeah but this time it was in tp zone for sure
5:25
sponn: but on monday usd/cad hit SL for most of us… for c3x not…
5:25
DaveO: yes agree
5:27
DaveO: if you dont do tech chart analysis you must always take the first TP and err on the side of safety
5:27
sponn: ok
5:27
sponn: i will next trades this way
5:27
sponn: i will try
5:27
sponn: now looks like my eur/usd and usd/chf going for sl
5:28
DaveO: by first TP I dont mean the first TR they show. Could be either
5:29
DaveO: on short trades it would be the second TR shown. Potentially confusing !
5:30
sponn: yeah I know 
5:30
DaveO: just making sure for benefit of any newbs watching
5:31
sponn: ok we will see how it will be going with first TP
5:31
sponn: less pips but 100% sure
5:32
DaveO: couod make a big difference to yer results
5:32
DaveO: shame the eurjpy missed first TP by 7 pips
5:32
sponn: gpb/jpy was close too
5:33
sponn: like aud/usd
5:34
DaveO: again if you had been watching the trend support line on eurjpy you might have taken some profit there. Like use your own discretion
5:34
DaveO: like take half off and tighten remaining stop
5:35
DaveO: so I recommend you try to underatnd Mike Higgs charts. He is our chief linesman
5:36
DaveO: If you put as much effort into that as complaining you will see some benefit
5:37
DaveO: so use the C3X for general directional bias and use your own discretion
5:40
DaveO: One fine day C3X might decide to finish their service
5:40
DaveO: You want to learn as much as you can before that happens
5:41
DaveO: become profitable, dont worry about trying to match C3X pips
5:42
C3X: CABLE: Settled back to $1.5680 ahead of the London close and traders still buzzing about the earlier drive-by that took the pair to levels atop $1.5720 on buying by a UK clearer. While the price action had all the hallmarks of a hedge fund drive-by, traders link the trade to an M&A deal where a UK firm Vedanta is buying a stake in an Indian mining firm owned by a UK based entity. Reports say that a $3 bn loan was due to be drawn down today and traders speculate that it was the proceeds of that deal that hit the market today, leading to cable buys of perhaps stg2 bn. Total size of the M&A deal is said to be about $6 bn so may be more to come
5:42
mustangrocky: momma bird kicking the baby birds out of the nest
5:42
DaveO: lol
5:43
sponn: Dave now I see what you mean
5:44
sponn: I’m using broker who does not math your charts
5:44
C3X: hey sponn just read your comment…while I was chatting the stun I had said we closed eurusd….
5:44
sponn: but now I see that hotforex has got the same 4h charts like you
5:44
C3X: that moment eurusd was at 1.3354
5:44
C3X: check the time and the price, you will see what I meant
5:45
sponn: now I see it at my hotforex charts
5:45
C3X: stun wanted to extend targets at that point so I had said that better close and then re entere later
5:45
sponn: it was trend line there
5:45
sponn: anyway my fault
5:45
C3X: eurjpy came to 103.84
5:45
C3X: 14 pips away
5:45
DaveO: good
5:46
DaveO: 103.77 forex
5:46
DaveO: missed by 7 pip
5:47
DaveO: but kissed trend line
5:47
sponn: gold sl
5:47
sponn: or still not ?
5:47
C3X: what is ur high?
5:47
C3X: mine was 1738.8
5:48
C3X: and you seem to be hung up on usdcad trade which i cant recall. when was this ?
5:48
sponn: it was monday but we discused about it
5:48
C3X: yes now I remember, I even put a screen shot
5:48
sponn: anyway looks like cad trade is going for sl again
5:48
C3X: showing the lowest and highest straight from a broker
5:49
sponn: 1739.35 gold high for me
5:49
C3X: now it is
5:49
C3X: 1739.45
5:49
C3X: the last burst
5:49
C3X: common we cant be discussing every handle in every trade….there will be differences
5:50
C3X: and about 2000 pips…nearly 60% of those trades were made in big big trades like audusd…check the perf sheet. Assuming the rest 40% were stopped you still have 1000pips of *clean* undisputed profits.
5:51
DaveO: yea I have gold futures high at 1744.2 current H.1 candle
5:51
C3X: rest is really difficult for me to give you exact point to entry and exit a trade
5:51
sponn: yeah I know
5:51
C3X: nopes…Daveo it has not crossed 1740 for me
5:52
sponn: but it’s not easy to follow your trades when the tradesheet is not updated…
5:52
C3X: but there have been issues of SLs and exit problems over the last 3 months….:)
5:52
DaveO: YG contract. spot only been to 1739.40
5:53
C3X: it is normally updated when a new trade is put up
5:53
C3X: right now it is updated
5:53
C3X: so when you look at a updated trade sheet, how does it help you?
5:54
C3X: I thought you are using the trade sheet for just entering a new trade or looking at any new targets. right?
5:54
C3X: or stop updates
5:54
C3X: if you are looking to exit just when we put the status as trade closed, may be difficult to follow
5:55
C3X: the simple strategy could be…exit 1/2 half on nearer targets and 1/4 on middle and 1/4 on last
5:55
C3X: assuming 1/2 hits and fx moves away from zone, then u take the rest out once it moves away by 15-25 pips or whatever u decide
5:55
C3X: am just giving u ways of playing this
5:56
C3X: or u can hold on till it comes back and hits the zone again
5:56
C3X: as the sheet shows
5:56
C3X: our fund is far more active than the sample shows…but it is impossible to duplicate every action of the fund on the sheet
5:57
C3X: but all trends and trades open are shown as it is
5:57
DaveO: I think sponn MUST adopt some form of charting
5:57
C3X: for example eurusd today
5:57
DaveO: and at the very least draw his trend lines to provide some kinda map
5:57
C3X: 1/2 could be taken out at 1.3360 and 1.4 at 1.3350 and 1.4 at 1.3340
5:58
C3X: but 1.3340 never came
5:58
C3X: so you could take that remaining out at 1.3375
5:58
DaveO: yes
5:58
sgbdis: hi
5:58
C3X: if trade sheet later still shows it open…u can again get into the trade..for example now it is at 1.3415
5:58
sgbdis: assume aud trade is still on right?
5:58
C3X: it is defintely ON
5:59
sgbdis: thanks
5:59
C3X: never came to Targets
5:59
Comment From MikeHiggs
When I eveluate the TLT/SPX I always check the TNX for confirmation. Expectation would be for a breakout in TNX, with a run to 25, or even the 200dma 27.14. SPX would rise to 1320+. Note 50ma acting as support. MACD is crossing to + with room to run.
6:00
MikeHiggs: http://chart.ly/676j5bd
6:00
C3X: sponn making sense?
6:00
sponn: yes
6:00
sponn: sure
6:00
sponn: so I can open aud/usd, usd/cad and eur/usd now
6:01
sponn: usd/chf too
6:01
C3X: eurusd?
6:01
sgbdis: so TNX breakout will be dollar positive, right?
6:01
C3X: I commented aout eurusd but I did not put the trade up
6:01
sponn: ok
6:01
sponn: so eur/usd is closed after tp
6:02
C3X: wires are hitting about a vedanta deal of 6bn sterling which is creating artificial cable demand
6:02
C3X: cable as i COMMENTED days back is a difficult currency due to cross flows
6:02
MikeHiggs: Sometimes Spoon even the simplest of Trend lines can form support and resistance, I would be amazed if you can trade without any charts at all. if you can , well done.
6:02
C3X: london is the currency head quarters of the world
6:02
MikeHiggs: sponn
6:02
C3X: yes eurusd is closed
6:03
C3X: unless you see a new trade on the sheet, there is no trade from us
6:03
sponn: ok but aud/sud and gbp/jpy and usd/chf are stil valid?
6:03
C3X: yes
6:03
C3X: execution status means they are ON
6:03
DaveO: I hope London will remain
6:03
sponn: eur/jpy too
6:03
C3X: but if u see them hitting the target even touching, assume we would have taken some out
6:03
C3X: yes
6:04
C3X: with stops it is easy as there are no ranges
6:04
C3X: if it hits stops, u know
6:04
C3X: unless it is a few pips
6:04
C3X: we trade futures
6:04
C3X: and brokers will have diffrent pips
6:04
DaveO: keep it simple sponn and close your trades at first TP and be happy regardless of what happens next
6:05
C3X: I actually agree with DaveO.
6:05
DaveO: until he has some form of meaningful charting
6:06
C3X: sponn do u have a trade sheet of what you did last month cause if you purely trade us, and u tried matching us on every trade, I cant see how you lost money
6:07
C3X: trying to get to the details…am just a curious person
6:07
C3X: usdcad was just one trade and for which we discussed at length and I proved that we were not stopped
6:08
C3X: and there was at least 2 subsc who confirmed that their stop was same as mine
6:08
sponn: and new usd/cad is executed now right ?
6:08
C3X: so which were the other trades that lost you money over and above the ones that made you money….
6:08
C3X: yes it is on the trade sheet
6:08
C3X: refresh or check email
6:09
C3X: one of the subsc was @Alby if am not wrong
6:10
C3X: I hope my english is understandable cause if am not communicating properly, that could be a problem with me more than you
6:12
sponn: yeah everything is clear for me
6:12
DaveO: clear as crystal
6:12
sponn: just have some problems with executing your signals thats all
6:12
C3X: Mike I did not understand why the arrow is UP
6:12
C3X: ON THOSE bond charts
6:13
DaveO: shame there isn’t some way of auto updating trade sheet
6:13
C3X: that arrow should go down given that in the past the 50 line has been capping it?
6:13
C3X: am talking of TNX
6:14
C3X: AND IF YIELDS arrow will point down, it only means spx also should look down?
6:14
C3X: just debating…I could be wrong here
6:14
C3X: someone told me about some site called hot forex or myforex which auto updates
6:15
C3X: never used all that
6:15
C3X: ok hopefully mike gets a chance to see my question
6:16
DaveO: sounds like u were talkin to oddy mon
6:16
C3X: US DATA: US fall weather was milder than normal, and the US so far has “set a record with 12 separate billion dollar weather/climate disasters in 2011, with an aggregate damage total of approximately $52 billion. This record year breaks the previous record of nine billion-dollar weather/climate disasters” in 2008.
6:16
C3X: so it autoupdates..does it?
6:17
sgbdis: i believe that if TNX rises then USD should rise too
6:17
C3X: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111207_novusstats.html
6:17
DaveO: oddyseus mad mon
6:18
C3X: yea I recall that username…..some nut I think…no someone else emailed saying this could be a perfect solution
6:18
C3X: but as long as it does not make it some spoon feeding service,
6:18
C3X: am fine…else I want folks to just use a strategy of their own
6:19
C3X: most subs have already thanked me for not making this any easier as they are bing forced to work harder to understand the markets
6:19
DaveO: you would have to run seperate live account for the service FX portfolio, not your own portfolio
6:19
C3X: and trades and ranges
6:19
C3X: Oh ok
6:19
C3X: then no point
6:19
sgbdis: the emails work fine, my opinion. It just need more regular updating when trades are closed.
6:19
C3X: maybe I slacked a bit last week
6:20
DaveO: you did and this week
6:20
C3X: yep….better to be frank and upright
6:20
DaveO: cant be helped when you go to Berlin
6:20
C3X: by the way anyone else reading mike charts the wa am reading it
6:21
C3X: yea maybe a earlier intimation would have helped
6:21
DaveO: stand by
6:21
C3X: that is for TNX to go down rather than UP
6:21
C3X: yields to fall and hence tresuried to rise and hence spx to fall
6:21
DaveO: yep just takin a look see
6:22
C3X: looks a great chart but am just reading it upside down to what Mike write
6:22
C3X: wrote
6:22
C3X: its a great chart and risk trades cannot be more easily explained
6:22
C3X: Oscillators are dying
6:23
C3X: imminent break one way or another
6:23
C3X: and when dominant trend is down, triangles break downwards…if dominant trend is up then triangles should break up
6:23
C3X: in this case yields dominant trend is down
6:26
MikeHiggs: Sorry, Just checking my arrows
6:26
C3X: see if newbie like me read that right
6:26
C3X: my understanding of patterns is basic
6:27
Comment From stun
I agree C3X with your analysis on that chart. But I would trust DaveO and Mike on that chart than you given you are not a linesman.
6:28
C3X:
6:28
stun: you never answered me “How was Berlin/”
6:29
C3X: @stun what do you want me to answer? Berlin was Berlin
6:32
DaveO: mIkes commentary with the TNX chart appears to be forecasting yields to rise = bonds down= SPX up
6:38
DaveO: question is will TNX break below the 55 dma instead. He sets store by his macd position for a break up but my inclination is a break down.
6:38
MikeHiggs: Re Charts. If TLT goes down, which I think it will, IN THE SHORT/NEAR TERM ONLY, SPX will rally. On TLT MACD is descending, it will need to break the 50dma support. The recent pattern looks bearish. If the TNX breaks to the upside, then the SPX will also break UP. MACD on TNX is rising, and recent pattern look bullish. Note how the wedges are mirriores and the long arm of the wedge is falling on the TLT & rising on the TNX. So I am saying, short term, TNX yiild will rise.Also TNX 50dma is offering support. 50dma on either the TLT or TNX will fail, I think it will be the TLT.
6:40
MikeHiggs: Well done DvO once again good precis work.
6:45
Comment From MikeHiggs
Chart basics 101. TLT vs TNX. Mirror opposites. Surely no-one can argue with that. One goes up, one goes down. Simple.
6:46
DaveO: TNX is currently breaking below my 55 dma
6:46
DaveO: bit early to pass judgment
6:49
MikeHiggs: All i am trying to do is pre-empt a movement, not say its happening.
6:49
DaveO: yep
6:51
Comment From MikeHiggs
3 year TLT vs TNX. Mandelbrot stylee.
6:51
MikeHiggs: 3 year TLT TNX http://chart.ly/lhkhwq6
6:52
MikeHiggs: 6 month TLT TNX http://chart.ly/xrrbmyu
6:54
C3X: two great charting experts…always great to have differing views
6:55
C3X: LOOK AHEAD: overseas overnight calendar —
08-Dec – Bank of Korea monthly Monetary Policy meeting
08-Dec – Bank Indonesia monthly Board of Governors meeting
08-Dec 2000/1500* New Zealand: RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
08-Dec 2350/1850* Japan: Oct machinery orders, BOJ Nov bank lending
08-Dec 2350/1850* Japan: trade 1st 20 of Nov, Oct C/A, Nov portfolio
inv, wkly international securities transactions
08-Dec 0030/1930* Australia: Nov labor force survey
08-Dec 0100/2000* Bank of Korea rate announcement
08-Dec 0345/2245* Japan: results of 30-year JGB auction
08-Dec 0500/0000 Japan: Nov Economy Watchers’ Survey
08-Dec 0600/0100 Japan: ESP Forecast Survey of GDP, CPI, BOJ policy
08-Dec 0720/0220 Australia: RBA Gov Glenn Stevens speaks in Sydney
08-Dec 0630/0230 France 3Q payrolls na
08-Dec 0730/0330 France Nov BoF business survey
08-Dec 0915/0415 Riksbank Gov. Stefan Ingves speech in Budapest
6:55
C3X: 18:47 07/12 GMT
LOOK AHEAD: overseas overnight calendar —
08-Dec 1200/0700 UK Dec BOE MPC Interest Rate Announcement
08-Dec 1245/0745 ECB announces rate decision, in Frankfurt
08-Dec 1000/500 Brazil Nov-11 Cen Bank/FGV Retail Confidence
08-Dec 1030/530 Brazil 30-Nov Copom minutes
08-Dec 1100/600 Brazil Nov-11 IBGE IPCA consumer prices
08-Dec 1400/0900 Mexico Nov-11 CPI, PPI ex-oil
6:55
C3X: DOLLAR-CANADA: Near static around C$1.0100 and about mid-range, with
“nothing going on,” according to one local trader. Earlier lows seen
around C$1.0088 with highs at C$1.0133 during US hours.
6:57
C3X: @mary good to see you back. Am sorry gold for me still is down but it just keeps taking away stops
6:57
C3X: yes am mostly away after NY lunch time so you will not see me here
6:59
DaveO: MH take a look at ZB 30 yr bondies. Possible H&S formation. Would strengthen your case
7:00
mary: any plans for NY?
7:00
C3X: none
7:01
stun: they may just launch themselves
7:01
DaveO: But Rt shoulder could spend rest of month tracking sideways
7:03
stun: how will you trade Gold if treasuries are expected to rise or fall cause gold should react opposite
