We have had a stellar month and it was all brought to a glorious end today as all open trades for 31 May 2012 hit their targets.
Before we go to todays chart and setups, let me quickly rewind through all the performance and portfolio for May 2012.
Including May 31, 2012, for this week alone, capital3x made 18 trade calls which were executed and 16 hit targets and 2 were stopped out. A total of +323 pips were made and +26.5 handles were made on ES SPX Emini trades.
Last week performance can be found hereQuoting from there:
For the week ended May 25, we have executed 29 trades out of which 23 hits targets and 6 were stopped out. We made +430 pips pips net of stop trades.
The entire Month of May 2012 portfolio is shared below:
For the month of May Captial3x has made +2075 pips over 97 trade calls that were executed and 77 that hit targets and 20 that were stopped out. Compare that to last month where we made 1975 pips. From our note for April performance: You can find the note here
For the month of April 2012, an overall 136 trading calls have been issued with 82 trading calls hitting targets while 54 being closed or stopped out. For the month of April, a cumulative +1975 pips have been achieved over the 136 trading calls. The weighted success ratio was 79%.
The month of May has been to keep our belts tight as we improved our accuracy to an incredible 80%. It is very difficult for any of our subs to not have made a decent chunk of profits in May. Please take time to go through the portfolio above.
We have also sliced some of the ES SPX Emini calls which are measured in handles below:
From the performance portfolio, I would like to take the ES Emini futures trades. There were 18 ES Emini trades executed for May 2012 as shown above. Net of stops, they made 103 handles. For ES trades, we greatly rely on our internal bond market indicators: Gladiator and Falcon.
So thats the performance and the portfolio and may we now go over to the charts and setups.
We did mention the importance of 1298 on the monthly chart. On the hourly we can see the wildness with which ES has been swinging. It has been through both ways 1320 and 1300 twice and that is what you get on the last day of a month.
Well more than the hourly what we now need to focus in on the daily where the bulls have been pretty much vanquished after a close below 1316. On the hourly, there is no trade.
The 20 SMA has been capping the ES rise at 1336. Only when there is an accelerated downtrend, do we see this line capping. On the way up, given the strength of this uptrend, we saw how the 20 SMA line kept support. The fear now is ES has entered an accelereated downtrend which is also being confirmed by the monthly charts. The bulls need to work over time to correct this massive overhang developing over the ES.
The Monthly Net Line SP stands at 1298. We saw how that level held as ES corrected from 1315 to 1297 level. We are now inclined that given the inside days and a larger red candle following up on it and even violating the monthly SP at 1298, bulls will find it very difficult to defend 1298 even in June. They need to take thing over 1333 as soon as possible otherwise we are focussing on 1260/1270 zone.
The April Inside month could not have come at a more appropriate time as May paints one of the largest down months in recent times.
The EURUSD for the first time in 24 months violates its 100 weekly BB lower range. This is getting far more serious than many realize it. The shorts on EU is at record levels and it is no accident. The fact that these shorts continue pummeling it down is testimony to serious structural issues now getting out of hand. As for trading setup, we need to continue to keep stops tight on this one as even in the strongest bear market, you will have 300-400 pips counter moves. So if you have short this, this is where you get out.
The Italian 10 year bonds have not violated its yearly lows even while EURUSD has. This should be comforting to anyone planning a counter trade on EURUSD. Forex markets always over react. I also think the EURCHF has been holding steady and therefore the barrage at SNB is being defended by SNB. Now wait and see what happens when the defender begins to be aggressive.
The Inside day in this case seems to have triggered to ward the downside and looking down the barrel. Our target was 98.1 which we mentioned in the trade room many times over. We have not only touched
down targets but exceded it by over 100 pips. The Oscillators of vortex and stochastics are still strongly bearish but they do take time to reverse on a daily scale.
You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.
Verdict: This has been a phenomenal month. In one month, bears wiped out what the bulls achieved in two months. Markets go down differently than they go up. There are different emotions at play. While technically, the bulls may be defending the 1300 level but the fact bears are not going away until we clear 1335, we could enter in a protracted few weeks of extended falls.
With that let me wind up today trading session and analysis. We will see you tomorrow at our trade room.
- The May Live Trade Sheet
- The May Live Trade Room
- C3X Performance FX portfolio
- The Bond auction schedule can be found here: Bond schedule
- The speaker schedule can be found here: Speaker schedule
The Indicator links are provided here: