We have had a stellar month and it was all brought to a glorious end today as all open trades for 31 May 2012 hit their targets.

Before we go to todays chart and setups, let me quickly rewind through all the performance and portfolio for May 2012.

Including May 31, 2012, for this week alone, capital3x made 18 trade calls which were executed and 16 hit targets and 2 were stopped out. A total of +323 pips were made and +26.5 handles were made on ES SPX Emini trades.

Last week performance can be found hereQuoting from there:

For the week ended May 25, we have executed 29 trades out of which 23 hits targets and 6 were stopped out. We made +430 pips pips net of stop trades.

The entire Month of May 2012 portfolio is shared below:

For the month of May Captial3x has made +2075 pips over 97 trade calls that were executed and 77 that hit targets and 20 that were stopped out. Compare that to last month where we made 1975 pips. From our note for April performance: You can find the note here

For the month of April 2012, an overall 136 trading calls have been issued with 82 trading calls hitting targets while 54 being closed or stopped out. For the month of April, a cumulative +1975 pips have been achieved over the 136 trading calls. The weighted success ratio was 79%.

The month of May has been to keep our belts tight as we improved our accuracy to an incredible 80%. It is very difficult for any of our subs to not have made a decent chunk of profits in May. Please take time to go through the portfolio above.

We have also sliced some of the ES SPX Emini calls which are measured in handles below:

From the performance portfolio, I would like to take the ES Emini futures trades. There were 18 ES Emini trades executed for May 2012 as shown above. Net of stops, they made 103 handles. For ES trades, we greatly rely on our internal bond market indicators: Gladiator and Falcon.

Further comparison of Capital3x performance over months:

May was a special month as we reduced the number of stopped trades to among the lowest.

So thats the performance and the portfolio and may we now go over to the charts and setups.

ES Hourly

We did mention the importance of 1298 on the monthly chart. On the hourly we can see the wildness with which ES has been swinging. It has been through both ways 1320 and 1300 twice and that is what you get on the last day of a month.

Well more than the hourly what we now need to focus in on the daily where the bulls have been pretty much vanquished after a close below 1316. On the hourly, there is no trade.

ES Daily

The 20 SMA has been capping the ES rise at 1336. Only when there is an accelerated downtrend, do we see this line capping. On the way up, given the strength of this uptrend, we saw how the 20 SMA line kept support. The fear now is ES has entered an accelereated downtrend which is also being confirmed by the monthly charts. The bulls need to work over time to correct this massive overhang developing over the ES.

ES Monthly

The Monthly Net Line SP stands at 1298. We saw how that level held as ES corrected from 1315 to 1297 level. We are now inclined that given the inside days and a larger red candle following up on it and even violating the monthly SP at 1298, bulls will find it very difficult to defend 1298 even in June. They need to take thing over 1333 as soon as possible otherwise we are focussing on 1260/1270 zone.

The April Inside month could not have come at a more appropriate time as May paints one of the largest down months in recent times.

EURUSD Weekly

The EURUSD for the first time in 24 months violates its 100 weekly BB lower range. This is getting far more serious than many realize it. The shorts on EU is at record levels and it is no accident. The fact that these shorts continue pummeling it down is testimony to serious structural issues now getting out of hand. As for trading setup, we need to continue to keep stops tight on this one as even in the strongest bear market, you will have 300-400 pips counter moves. So if you have short this, this is where you get out.

The Italian 10 year bonds have not violated its yearly lows even while EURUSD has. This should be comforting to anyone planning a counter trade on EURUSD. Forex markets always over react. I also think the EURCHF has been holding steady and therefore the barrage at SNB is being defended by SNB. Now wait and see what happens when the defender begins to be aggressive.

The Inside day in this case seems to have triggered to ward the downside and looking down the barrel. Our target was 98.1 which we mentioned in the trade room many times over. We have not only touched
down targets but exceded it by over 100 pips. The Oscillators of vortex and stochastics are still strongly bearish but they do take time to reverse on a daily scale.

You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.

Verdict: This has been a phenomenal month. In one month, bears wiped out what the bulls achieved in two months. Markets go down differently than they go up. There are different emotions at play. While technically, the bulls may be defending the 1300 level but the fact bears are not going away until we clear 1335, we could enter in a protracted few weeks of extended falls.

With that let me wind up today trading session and analysis. We will see you tomorrow at our trade room.

1. The May Live Trade Sheet
2. The May Live Trade Room
3. C3X Performance FX portfolio
4. The Bond auction schedule can be found here: Bond schedule
5. The speaker schedule can be found here: Speaker schedule

The Indicator links are provided here:

1. Falconfx EUR/USD
2. Falconfx EUR/JPY
3. Falconfx USD/CAD
4. Gladiator ES

Trading Membership: TRADING MEMBERSHIP SUBSCRIPTION.
Indicator Membership: INDICATOR MEMBERSHIP

Mark
Capital3x.com

You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.

 

Asian Headlines

• Japanese Industrial Production (Apr P) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.3%)
• Japanese Industrial Production (Apr P) Y/Y 13.4% vs. Exp. 13.7% (Prev. 14.2%) (Newswires)
• China should use fiscal measures to boost growth, as loose monetary policy alone will not be effective, according to a government researcher. (China Daily) World Bank Chief Zoellick has said further stimulus would be appropriate for China, and Beijing should focus any new efforts on longer-term investments. (Newswires)

US,EU Headlines

• Contrary to reports from other European leaders including the Italian PM Monti, the EU Commission have said they do not see the possibility of direct recapitalisation of banks from the Eurozone’s permanent bailout fund. These reports run contrary to comments we saw yesterday from the EU stating that they are willing to envisage direct ESM banking recapitalisations. Following the reports, the fast money move saw EUR/USD break the 1.2400 level to the downside, with Bund futures gaining immediate support in a move to the upside of 15 ticks. The gains were quickly pared, but some residual remains.
• Commentary regarding a European banking union continues to garner attention as the EU Commission says a banking union is about avoiding future crises, not the current one, adding to earlier comments from the ECB’s Draghi who commented that creating a banking union could be the first step. Draghi also said greater centralisation of banking supervision is needed, along with a banking resolution fund and a deposit insurance guarantee fund. (Newswires)
• Dublin has made a last ditch effort to persuade voters to back the EU’s new fiscal treaty ahead of a referendum today, warning that a no vote would derail Ireland’s recovery and leave it as isolated as Greece. (FT-More) Dublin has also warned that a rejection risks undermining the Euro at a time when Brussels is struggling to contain a banking crisis in Spain and political gridlock in Greece. Ireland’s government is confident of victory in today’s referendum as secret official polling forecasts that over 60% of Irish voters will tick the Yes box. Polling stations are due to close at 2200BST today. (Telegraph)
• RealtyTrac have shown in a survey that sales of homes that were in some stage of foreclosure or bank owned accounted for 26% of all US residential sales during Q1, up from 22% of all sales in Q4 last year. The average sales price of homes in foreclosure or bank-owned during Q1 USD 161,214, down 1% from Q4 last year and down 2% from a year earlier. CEO of RealtyTrac Moore has said the pickup in foreclosure-related sales was particularly concentrated in pre-foreclosure sales where a distressed homeowner is selling to avoid foreclosure, typically via a short sale. (Newswires)
  BarCap US Treasury month end extension seen at +0.06yrs

Data

• German Unemployment Change (000′s) (May) M/M 0k vs. Exp. -7k (Prev. 19k, Rev. to 18k) – Unadjusted jobless total falls to a 20-year low
• Unemployment Rate SA (May) M/M 6.7% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 6.8%) (Newswires)
• Eurozone CPI Estimate (May) M/M 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%) (Newswires)
• BarCap Pan Euro Agg month end extension seen at +0.04yrs
• iBoxx UK Agg month end extension seen at +0.06yrs

You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.

You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.

As I write this down I understand that there are a lot of rumors and news flow out of Europe moving the forex markets sometimes inexplicably. Now here is a lesson to my subs some of who are already well versed with these things. Turn a deaf ear and focus on prices and relationships with bonds. While the rest of the trading world is jumping over to be creative about who goes bust first: Spain or Italy? The Capital3x subs have developed a cold blooded indifference to news and rumors. They focus and keep their eyes trained on watching, identifying and then finally checking the feasibility of a trade.

We have been having a super session with Captial3x indicators. Subs have requested me to include a few case studies on today sessions so here they go.

But right after we discuss falcon and gladiator (Capital3x indicators), I would like you take a look at ES (Emini SPX futures) and see where do we stand and how close are we too some big levels which could be tested in tomorrows close.

EDIT: Added during NY session at GMT 7:37 PM 30 May 2012

Before we get to todays charts (have got something interesting for you on the monthly), let just rewind on the Falcon and the Gladiator which are Captial3x bond market Indicators which have been under tremendous duress as markets have been whipping but arent we thankful that we have a tool which stands by us helping us.

Falcon EU went short at 1.247 and it is now down over 70 pips from the crossing on 29 May 2012. This is only the hourly.

The Falcon EU Daily is even more stark as the crossing happened at 1.2990. It has helped us determine the dominant trend in EU since that break. The short trade is up over 500 pips.

The Falcon EURJPY hourly had a -1 crossing at 99.1 and since then has given us 100 pips of profits without even a challenge of the stops.

The Falcon EUR/JPY Daily has been even more bearish as it went -1 at 107.49 and since then has been below
-1 for the whole of May 2012 as EURJPY crashes below 99 making over 800 pips of profit.

The Falcon USDCAD daily has given over 1000 pips on the daily charts without any problems. It is the sheer confidence with which falcon gives its signals that should be assuring to traders. And yet we do not label it as and EA or a robot.

We would like to use these as tools and manual indicators so that you become better trades. We could have easily made this into a robot and sold you a one time 1000′s of dollar EA but we instead decided to lease it to you at nominal charge cause we use these indicators and have had a tremendous success. We believe these indicators will change the way retail trades forex. Give it a few months.

The Gladiator records its seventh instant of 10 handle winner. The 10 Handle is a conservative estimate as too often we exit at the 10 handle winner. Majority of Gladiator winners are 13-15 handle winners. The false signals have also been mixing but the speed with which they are neutralized in a market which is ranging as much as this market has been, should be appreciated. When in doubt, you refer to the Gladiator. It is unmatched in its ability to tell you the status quo of a market trend.

If you would like to subscribe to these Indicators: INDICATOR MEMBERSHIPS

Now we come to setups and charts.

The Monthly Net Line SP stands at 1298. Now that is in striking distance of todays close. This could have a consequence for the medium term into the end of the year. We could be then looking at another test of monthly lows and coupled with a test of the confluence at 1270 levels. The April Inside month could not have come at a more appropiate time as May paints one of the largest down months in recent times.

Those who are unaware of the Net Line SP and Net Line BP levels, please refer to the cheat sheet here.

“ES has gaps at 1314 to 1323. Some part was filled but we still need to close the rest” This is what I wrote and posted in the trade room when ES was at 1324 and when Gladiator crossed -1. Now we have an inside day painted at 1310 and we see a strong push for the hourly Net Line BP at 1317. Be long above that for a test of 1322. By the gaps have been filled and we are now done with filling the volume hole.

The Inside day in this case seems to have triggered to ward the downside and looking down the barrel. Our target was 98.1 which we mentioned in the trade room many times over. We have not only touched down targets but exceeded it. The Oscillators of vortex and stochastics are still strongly bearish but they do take time to reverse on a daily scale.

We know how closely has the Italian bonds been a precursor to EU moves. Well it did get the falcon to cross -1 at 1.247 and since then has given over 80 pips but I will now be careful given that BTP is pushing against a key support which also forms a double bottom and also the lower daily BB line.

This is what I said yesterday “CADJPY is still painting indecision in the middle of nowhere. To me
this looks like getting too heavy and may be losing strength. In that case we could see a daily intra day test of 76.31 before any subsequent move.”

This is what I say now:

You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.

1. The May Live Trade Sheet
2. The May Live Trade Room
3. C3X Performance FX portfolio
4. The Bond auction schedule can be found here: Bond schedule
5. The speaker schedule can be found here: Speaker schedule

The Indicator links are provided here:

1. Falconfx EUR/USD
2. Falconfx EUR/JPY
3. Falconfx USD/CAD
4. Gladiator ES

Please do visit the Cheat Sheet for Indicators

Please do visit the Cheat Sheet for Trading Member

Mark
Capital3x.com

You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.

You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.

You need to be a subscriber with Captial3x Trading portfolio or Combined Indicator member to read on….. Subs have access to all the market analysis (Copper,BDI, Gold, US treasury, EU bond markets) and FX setups which also feature our FX portfolio. You also have access to Trade Room of Capital3x.