There are many kinds of traders: Trends traders, Reversal traders, Swing traders, Scalp traders. And there are the smart traders who are looking to make pips rather than money. It makes the world of difference on how you classify yourself in terms of trading psychology.
This market has continued to sway stops on both sides. The ATR range on yen pairs ….
AUD/JPY breakout at 83 was well caught by us but we had stop outs given the swings on this pair but overall are up over 150 pips on the pair. But a clear of 84 yesterday now clears the path for over 200 pips gain from here before reversal kicks in if at all.
While Last afternoon reversal on ES pulled VIX from that 21 upper bollinger band. The fact that previous high was gone is sign of some more gains on risk trades.
More charts later.
The German economy suffered a slight dip at the end of 2011: compared with the previous quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. As further reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the German economy grew by 3.0% (in calendar-adjusted terms: 3.1%) over the entire year of 2011. This is in line with the first calculation of January this year. The december numbers were above expectation of -0.3%.
France grows in december
In 2011 Q4, French gross domestic product (GDP) in volume* increased by +0.2% after +0.3% the previous quarter. Over the year, GDP increased by 1.7% (after +1.4% in 2010).
Households’ consumption expenditure slightly decelerated by the end of the year (+0.2% after +0.3%), while gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated (+0.9% after +0.2%). Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) drove GDP on for 0.3 point of growth after 0.2 in Q3. Exports grew at the same pace as the last summer (+1.2%), while imports dropped (–1.2% after +0.7%). Hence foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth in Q4 (+0.7 point after +0.1 point the previous quarter). This contribution is overcompensated by changes in inventories contributing for –0.8 point to GDP growth after being neutral in Q3.
Consumption slowed down
Households’ consumption expenditure rose by 0.2% in Q4 after +0.3%. Energy expenditure fell (–3.6% after +5.7%) due to mild weather conditions this fall. Expenditure in food products went on decreasing though less markedly (–0.1% after –0.8%). Besides, car purchases renewed with growth in Q4. Expenditures in services slowed down all together, with the exception of accomodation and food services which held steady after a drop in the summer. Over 2011, households’ consumption expenditure slowed down (+0.3% after +1.3%) and contributed for +0.1 point to GDP growth.
Exports rose, imports fell
Exports went on growing in Q4 (+1.2%), mostly driven by transport equipment sales (+7.9% after +3.6%). Meanwhile, imports fell (–1.2% after +0.7%), weighed down by almost all goods. Consequently, foreign trade balance improved and contributed for +0.7 point to GDP growth (after +0.1 point). Over 2011, exports and imports grew at the same pace (+5.0%). Hence, the contribution of the foreign trade balance to GDP growth is almost neutral: –0.1 point after +0.1 point in 2010.
Changes in inventories weighed down GDP growth this quarter
In Q4, changes in inventories accounted for –0.8 point of GDP growth, half of this contribution being imputable to transport equipments (–0.4 point). But given the growth rate carried over at the beginning of the year, they contributed for +0.9 point to the annual GDP growth (after +0.5 point in 2010).
GDP growth in 2011 Q3 is still estimated at 0.3% Revisions with respect to the previous publications are small. They are mainly due to the update of seasonal and working day adjustment.
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