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Financial markets thrive and flourish on retail and small time traders being sucked into news and sentiment. That is how the smart money exits while dumb money ends up losing all the time. The net sum of the entire operation is zero as wealth is transferred from one entity to another. It is important on which team are you in: the dumb money team or the smart money team. The categorization is not difficult to identify. If you are someone who do not get sucked into the top of a market esp when you look back (ss you have the privilege of identifying market tops and bottoms) then you are in the right league. Even as I pen this down, half the trading world will be focused on Greece elections. Not even the Greeks will be as focused as some of the forex traders. Let me make this clear (for the umpteenth number) news dont matter in the long term. The news that you see is already priced in days and weeks before. Things like election never change trends. But given our stops are as tight as 25-30 pips, it does make sense to stay out of the drama.
While friday presented a classic example of a late rally on a weekend(what with it clearing some key levels) but it is important to note that things are still in slimy land as presented below (over 25 charts and setups). We begin with forex setups and then move to bond setups and equities.
AUDJPY daily loooks bullish as it sways in mid air between the mid and upper BB line. It will always be difficult to trade this as we weigh both sides of the coin whether AJ will take support at the mid line at 77.93 and then move to 80.53 or are we headed to 80.53 in one hop from here. But any dips intra day to 78 zone is a but opportunity.
One of the clearest pattern among yen pairs is being observed in the AUDJPY pair on the 60 min which has continued to be stabilise above the mid line of the daily BB 25,2 range. The upside on hourly looks capped at 79.6 which can become a great short target with a stop a few pips above that zone.
EURAUD daily is kissing the lower boundary of 25,2 BB line. We need to wait for a clearnace of 1.2650 to call a bottom on the daily and a retrace back to 1.2754.
EURAUD weekly is is right at mid 25,2 BB weekly line. I would expect a reaction at this level right here. If broken, then flip the trade around for a test of the long term objective at 1.222 level.
EURUSD daily looks uber bullish since it broke the daily mid line at 1.258 to 1.26 zone. Any dips to 1.26 can now be bought for an eventual test of 1.2849. EU was always looking possitive since Falcon EU broke +1 at 1.252 and our constant updates on Italian 10 year having bottomed out at the confluence zone at 98.
EU had a major confluence at 1.24 zone which was the 100 and 25 BB confluence. The reaction of that level has made over 200 pips and there is more to go here.
Dollar Index charts continues to conslidate well inside its breakout at 81.5. While we have seen EURUSD retrace quite a bit, the larger trend still is for the old bucky to rise as long as we stay above 81.5 and on intra day basis 81.1.Dollar Index can retrace quite a bit here as we are well clear of 81.5 and 81.1 even after last week consolidation.
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The Falcon EU hourly has been giving more +1 signals than -1 and has been well supported by prices moves. In all the move from 1.2512 to 1.2590 which is more than 50 pips.One June 14 it again went +1 at 1.2597 and had you structured an entry below that crossing would have made well over 50 pips in the ensuing move. Surprisingly the late friday move has once again generated another +1. Is that already speaking of 1.2730?
The Falcon EJ has been performing exceedingly well under some severely difficult market conditions which I had labelled as sucker zone above. Normally if I was trading only charts, I would have stayed out but not so with Falcon which still continues to rack up the pips slow and steady. Currently the Falcon EJ is in neutral zone suggesting no trades.
The Gladiator went +1 at 1318 on June 14 and since then has not been neutralized at all. So while the auto trade would have made +10 handles at 1329, the other modes of trading (aggressive mode on the cheat sheet) would have caught the entire move from 1319 to 1340. There are very few indicators out there which could have caught moves of this magnitude on an hourly charts.
On the daily Falcon EJ has clipped the -1 and moved above it for the first time since it broke at 107.49 in mid May. The trend is still down but you need to cut position to at least half if you are a long term trader.
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